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Search: Posts Made By: Bill Lyster
Forum: General Discussion 07-30-2018, 11:15 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,316
Posted By Bill Lyster
Hope everything in Niagara went well. Talk to...

Hope everything in Niagara went well. Talk to you later in the week.

Happy Birthday
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 07-26-2018, 09:55 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,026
Posted By Bill Lyster
What I meant to say about DMR is that its about...

What I meant to say about DMR is that its about the same as far as top 4 POH F1, but the number of winners at DMR that are top 3 POH F1 falls off sharply. This probably accounts for some of the big...
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 07-25-2018, 10:06 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,026
Posted By Bill Lyster
Turf factors

This stat sounds contradictory, but I tend to think its an unrecognized feature of turf racing.

Since the start of DMR and SAR there have been 34 turf races of all distances.

Pace of Horse F1...
Forum: Races of Interest 06-30-2018, 02:34 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 403
Posted By Bill Lyster
Lots of inside speed (2-3-4), it looks to me,...

Lots of inside speed (2-3-4), it looks to me, with the 3 going 24.2. The 10 and 16 are drawn outside of all this and have only run their races from inside the 5th gate position. They could be...
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-30-2018, 10:53 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,567
Posted By Bill Lyster
Bill, This was an excellent layout of the...

Bill,

This was an excellent layout of the Guidelines and your handicapping.

The only thing I would add is that, based on my own research into turf races using FTL guidelines, you can accept a...
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-29-2018, 01:42 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,567
Posted By Bill Lyster
Hey Richie: It doesn't matter that the glass...

Hey Richie:

It doesn't matter that the glass is half full or not; the key thing is ITS REFILLABLE!! More wine please.
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-28-2018, 01:27 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,567
Posted By Bill Lyster
Bill, video not available. may I tried accessing...

Bill, video not available. may I tried accessing too soon after your post.

What day is race from. I don't see any 7f turf races yesterday or today?

OOPs a bit premature. Not like its never...
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-13-2018, 02:47 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 404
Posted By Bill Lyster
Here are the 9 races in the PPs for the two. How...

Here are the 9 races in the PPs for the two. How did he get to this race, this day?

46271

The following is what FTL sent me when I questioned him about lifetime records and their reliability....
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-13-2018, 02:34 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 404
Posted By Bill Lyster
So we are left with three contenders, but are there really three?

Here is the original data screen that shows the 2 and 7 coming from the same race, with the 7 having an apparent slight edge in the first fraction.
46268

The TPR graph
46269

The segments...
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-13-2018, 02:27 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 404
Posted By Bill Lyster
More horses

Horse 6, no sprints in last 90 days, non contender
46263

Horse 7, A presser or early presser; last line; horse is 1-32 lifetime!
46264

Horse 8 - I labeled him an S; but last line was not...
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-13-2018, 02:19 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 404
Posted By Bill Lyster
Parx Tuesday June 5, Race 9

I thought this race analysis would be an interesting teaching tool, one that I got from FTL. Having noticed the nice winning price he asked me if I could find the contenders and make a case for the...
Forum: General Discussion 06-09-2018, 08:34 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 533
Posted By Bill Lyster
Thanks, that was the point i was trying to make

Thanks, that was the point i was trying to make
Forum: General Discussion 06-09-2018, 12:54 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 533
Posted By Bill Lyster
Parx followup

If any of you read the FTL compilation one of the most interesting stats he presented related to favorites.

Roughly stated and backed by years of research FTL told us that 52% of odds on favorites...
Forum: General Discussion 06-03-2018, 01:58 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 1,379
Posted By Bill Lyster
All prayers for a speedy recovery. You are an...

All prayers for a speedy recovery. You are an inspiration to many of us. Stay strong,

Love,

Bill
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 06-01-2018, 10:02 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 2,445
Posted By Bill Lyster
sure why not

sure why not
Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 05-31-2018, 11:48 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 2,445
Posted By Bill Lyster
46190 So in your example the yellow cell is...

46190

So in your example the yellow cell is set at 80%. No problem with the results in the APV column, but the BL column shows 1.8 where 3 of the 7 entries are #1 and two are #2. So 5 of the 7...
Forum: General Discussion 05-11-2018, 09:54 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 420
Posted By Bill Lyster
Belatedly, Happy Birthday to the head "MUM" ...

Belatedly, Happy Birthday to the head "MUM"

All the best and more.....
Forum: General Discussion 05-05-2018, 06:20 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,059
Posted By Bill Lyster
not only that, but the tote was down last I...

not only that, but the tote was down last I checked. No bets until its back up.
Forum: Matchup Discussion 05-05-2018, 12:06 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 2,261
Posted By Bill Lyster
Agreed that Mendelssohn is a question mark and he...

Agreed that Mendelssohn is a question mark and he did press on turf. But even unadjusted six furlong and mile times put him near the front with a top two mile time and a 3 furlong closing time that...
Forum: Races of Interest 05-04-2018, 06:49 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 2,783
Posted By Bill Lyster
Lily in the Oaks (way back and no big move) ran...

Lily in the Oaks (way back and no big move) ran two sprints earning 74-77 adjusted SRs then an 80 ASR in the route prior to the AQU race that was -17 variant. Variants in the four races she ran are...
Forum: Matchup Discussion 05-04-2018, 04:41 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 849
Posted By Bill Lyster
If you use the splits for Mendelsohn's UaE Derby...

If you use the splits for Mendelsohn's UaE Derby for Rayya, she might compromise the 14, who is running outside on a short trip to the turn with plenty of early pressing speed inside that just might...
Forum: Races of Interest 05-04-2018, 04:28 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 2,783
Posted By Bill Lyster
Paul, I am going to see how My Miss Lily runs...

Paul,
I am going to see how My Miss Lily runs in the Oaks. She ran on the -17 variant at AQU, the same as Vino Rosso and that line makes her very sustained and 2nd on TPR to the 14. I will adjust...
Forum: Races of Interest 05-04-2018, 02:00 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,618
Posted By Bill Lyster
Gene Many thanks for your work. Marathon...

Gene

Many thanks for your work. Marathon wise, this looks really great even with the 3-4 and 19 going for the lead, all of whom should be cooked by the top of the stretch.

Thanks again,

Bill
Forum: Races of Interest 04-20-2018, 01:54 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,608
Posted By Bill Lyster
An update from columnist Jon White today, ...

An update from columnist Jon White today,

"But Kentucky Derby history shows that it is important for a horse to be able to make their move before they reach the final furlong. That's because 52 of...
Forum: Races of Interest 04-17-2018, 12:39 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 3,608
Posted By Bill Lyster
One more from last year: 46090

One more from last year:

46090
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