Forum: General Discussion
02-05-2018, 12:04 AM
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Replies: 78
Views: 47,386
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Forum: General Discussion
02-04-2018, 11:47 PM
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Replies: 78
Views: 47,386
I think you’re missing the point. What Bill...
I think you’re missing the point. What Bill Lyster was showing is the result of modeling. Good contender selection and good line selection are the best ingredients for a good model. In this case the...
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Forum: General Discussion
02-03-2018, 12:48 AM
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Replies: 78
Views: 47,386
Further CLARIFICATION
Actually, as a further point of clarity for all who may be reading this, the guidelines I use are the ORIGINAL SARTIN GUIDELINES with two additions of my own. Those two additions are the ML guideline...
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Forum: General Discussion
02-03-2018, 12:36 AM
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Replies: 78
Views: 47,386
To Bill Lyster
Although I have already done so privately, I want to publicly thank Bill Lyster for all the hard work, time and effort he put into this project. I can only say that I was taken aback by what he has...
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Forum: Matchup Discussion
02-01-2018, 10:17 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 15,747
I was asked to look at this race. There’s not...
I was asked to look at this race. There’s not much to look at.
If you are not familiar with my guidelines there are many places to find them. At any rate, here they are applied to this race.
...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-21-2018, 01:06 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 7,145
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-21-2018, 01:00 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 7,145
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-17-2018, 04:38 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 29,495
Actually, at 3.50/1, the #10 horse WAS the...
Actually, at 3.50/1, the #10 horse WAS the betting favorite.
In nine races showing, the #10 horse has never broke better than 4th and has never been on the lead at the first call.
In nine races...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-16-2018, 10:52 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 29,495
First things first. I WOULD NOT have had the...
First things first. I WOULD NOT have had the winner of this race as it was OFF 190 days.
Next, thanks Bill for posting the PP’s.
Ok, on to each horse.
#1 – SCR
#2 – NO LINE. I’m not going...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-16-2018, 09:05 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 29,495
Thanks for the reply.
That's very interesting....
Thanks for the reply.
That's very interesting. I've seen many horses run back in 3, 4 or 5 days and never heard or seen a stewards scratch because the horse was running back in that short of time...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-16-2018, 05:32 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 29,495
I'm not sure I understand.
Are you suggesting...
I'm not sure I understand.
Are you suggesting that regardless of how the trainer feels about the horse's condition, the stewards forced the trainer to scratch because the trainer was racing the...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
01-16-2018, 05:26 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 29,495
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-25-2017, 01:51 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 13,537
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-24-2017, 10:35 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 13,537
Hi Bill,
I think the condition you are...
Hi Bill,
I think the condition you are looking for is “NON WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER”
The abbreviation for this condition is “NW1X”.
The purpose of this...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-23-2017, 05:12 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 13,537
Bill V's post
By the way, in keeping with Bill V’s post on CD, race 11 there was also a HANDICAP race.
The highweight won paying $#10.40
For those not familiar with this concept, I stress reading the...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-23-2017, 04:51 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 13,537
Handicap races
Here is the link to the original thread on this topic.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9176
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-23-2017, 12:50 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 13,537
Bill,
There are SO MANY good threads in this...
Bill,
There are SO MANY good threads in this forum that people never see because they don’t go back and read them.
Basically, you and I “kicked off” this forum with the idea of teaching. There...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-21-2017, 01:42 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 13,537
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-15-2017, 02:03 AM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
Naturally, Bill.
The fractions in line 9 are...
Naturally, Bill.
The fractions in line 9 are MORE THAN 2 full seconds slower.
Since the total energy on both lines are very close, as you said, the slower early fractions in line 9 have an effect...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-14-2017, 09:35 PM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
3 for 3
Thanks, Pook, for posting this horse. There are examples here that can be explored and that is what I intend to do.
1 – I didn’t write this, Doc did.
44995
The following is just a “guess”...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-13-2017, 08:06 PM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
Your stats look about right to me.
In any...
Your stats look about right to me.
In any given year, roughly 10% of all starters have not had a race in the last 90 days.
Then,roughly 10% from that group win.
I think anyone reading this will...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-11-2017, 11:35 PM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-11-2017, 06:49 PM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
Thanks Bill.
With millions and millions of...
Thanks Bill.
With millions and millions of horses and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of races in my database, I have been cautioning people that horses off more than 90 days win less than 5%...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-10-2017, 07:51 PM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
Using ENERGY
Here is my look at the horse and race being discussed using ENERGY.
There are no horses with a ML of 20/1 or higher and there are no horses that haven’t raced in the last 90 days, so there are no...
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Forum: Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
11-10-2017, 12:53 AM
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Replies: 101
Views: 78,310
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