Parx race 6 9/1/14 Entropy handicapping
 

This was almost a one horse bet,
This is my look by request from a private email about Parx race 6 from
labor day 9/1/14

The race is a CL 7500 for non winners of 4 lifetime
These are 3 time winners only females

Here are the entries

Attachment 38260

The 3 is a lone Early 7 !!!!!

I also have a negative dropper = horse #5 and two horse that Brohamer considers highly suspect because they are last or next to last on virtually ever pace line at the first call.


I will work the race in Entropy and base my bets on the final sort

Here are some notes I took from my Parx data base

The class CL 7.5 N4-L 3 + F
The distance of 8.3
This is a uncommon distance for this class for females. My database shows
only 5 such prior races for older females.The same class CL7.5N4-L but at
1 mile has 10 races for the exact same time frame.

Some stats
Pars are 23.7 114.1 145.7
Winners TM speed rating par =81

Ave position F1 4
Ave BL F1 = 3.75
Ave position 2nd call 2
Average bl 2nd call = .0375
Average position stretch 1
Average bl stretch 0

Days since last race
Average 32
High 51
Low 14

% early par 68.54
High 69.45
Low 67.61

Running Styles Visual 1 EP 1 Press 1 SP 2 Sus
Energy 1 Early 1 EP 1 SP 2 Sus

No post 1 winners

Records of 5 winners entering the race
3-16 = 18.7%
3-10 = 30%
3-32 = 9.3%
3-14 = 21.4%
3-18 = 16.6%

From this I see the 5 previous winners were very close to the front by the second call

------------------------------------------------------------
Now here is my looks
------------------------------------------------------------
Horse 1 Sus Almost a Brohamer throw out
as always at or last at the first call. Too slow
Par speed rating for this class-distance is 81
She just won at CL7500 N3-L 1 class lower with a 55

Horse 2 Scratch

Horse 3 E7 Excuse line 1 and 2 - sprints
line 3 is a + line that fits its normal running pattern. Line 4 looks better but its against 3 year olds only. Pace line speed rating is only a 64
but with less pressure today should be able to improve.

Horse 4 Sus Terrible win ratio of only 7%
Speed rating fits running style but this one is
a poor win prospect because its too late style poor %early and early model
for this distance.

Horse 5 Sus line 2. Speed rating and running style fits. However this is a Negative pattern
Claimed for 12.5 but has not run in 59 days.
Now is dropped to 7500 N4-L
win percentage 12%

Horse 6 Sus A. definite Brohamer throw out.
Last or near last every race Was up close in the stretch with a drop in class on line 2 but speed rating is too low

Horse 7 EP sprinter to the outside of horse 3.
line 1 is 5.5 I will use line 2 for pace matching
though speed rating is low

Horse 8 Press. No form. Was up close at the first call against much tougher but stopped. No point entering this line

Attachment 38261

Into Entropy
Right away I will throw out the 1 horse. It is 3 points below the other sustained routers off a win line.
Now I see the 7 is causing the 2 adjust. I will use it to even the routers to the sprinter in total energy

Attachment 38262

Attachment 38263

The 7 now has no advantage in total energy
This is one of my favorite features of Entropy .

The knock on the 7 is now to too high percent %
It is over 70% It will even use more early energy to try to out break the 3 horse because the 3 is to its inside.

Now to the final sort

Attachment 38264



The 7 is high with 14 so out it goes
The 5 is the negative dropper, the 4 is too low on percent medium
Its only hope is that the 3 7 pace dual kills them both

The 3 win and pays $16.80

Total energy and results
 

here is how Entropy adjust the total energy

Attachment 38265

Results The 7 did break first but it packed it in

Attachment 38266