Wednesday Saratoga Race 2
 

The race: 6 Furlong State-bred Maiden Special "slobberknocker" (my tongue-in-cheek way of describing a hard-to-decipher race, usually reserved for maiden claimers :)). For the sake of brevity, I won't post screenshots here, because I don't think that they are needed. You will see why shortly.

The horses:

Royal Rica - FTS

Hot Stones - 2nd Time Starter - Presser - 167.5 TE vs. 167.7 PoR last.

Carla Sweetrevenge - 0-for-8 - EARLY - Line 1 is a 165.6 TE "N" (plus within negative, or "Neutral") race at 7F vs. 167.8 PoR. Line 2 is a + race at 168.5 TE vs. a 168.6 PoR. Lezcano reunites. Capable of the pace here.

Gloria Victoria - 2nd Time Starter - Presser - 167.0 TE vs. 167.8 PoR at 7F, in tandem with Carla Sweetrevenge. Different match-up today.

Run to Mama - 0-for-2 - Ugly lines, though she makes her dirt debut today. Unknown commodity.

Kimmie's Girl - FTS

Rock N Cozy - 0-for-14 - S/P - Off 115 days, previous start a O-grade effort. Best form (and I say that loosely) came over AQU IDT in the dead of winter. Saratoga is usually a different story. With unknown commodities in this race, I can't feel confident in trying to match a line against the lone horse with starts that has set a pace. I'd let this one beat me without prejudice.

Given the nature of this race, with the firsters and 2nd time comebackers, this is not a race that IMO, the Methodology can verbalize with any sort of confidence. PASS.

auto pass
 

With both FTS going its a auto pass for me
I do have 3 horses who fit the Why not maidens ? profile

Attachment 34898

And you would have had the $21.20 Exacta and $28 Triple combos covered, lol.

FWIW, I did find value in betting the #3 to straight place based on the odds. A $5.00 Place payout was what I probably deserved out of that race.