Saturday 3/16 - 2 Races at Tup (R2, R7)
 

Here are a couple of races from Turf Paradise tomorrow each at 5 furlongs....

I'll take a look in the morning...

Tup 2nd Race
 

Running Styles
1: Ugly …out
2: Early 22.0 45.4 needs open lengths
3: P/S
4: Early, has only won with open lead against 21.3 and 21.4. Last race fought to the stretch against 21.2 44.4
5: E/P
6: Sus
7: Used to be early, last three races shows S/P

Match-Up

The 4 is the dominant early here. Should get a clear lead from the 2 who is slower and needs open lengths. The only other one that I could see possibly pressing early here would be the 5. I like the fighting that the 4 showed last time though against the FPLR. It fought for the lead at a 1C of 21.2 and kept going until the stretch call! That’s enough for me to see. I’ll take #4 to reverse the tandem with the #3 horse.

Tup Race 7
 

Running Styles

1: P/S
2: E/P
3: Pre
4: Ear 21.4 45.1
5: Ear – needs clear lead.21.3 44.0
6: Sus
7: Ear – won against 22.1 44.4 but can be on the lead in 21.4 44.3
8: P/S

Match-Up

I’m projecting 21.3 off of #5’s last race. I start by matching 1 vs 2. The 1 has been competitive against similar paces (Lines 3 and 4) but the 2 has not, he’s out.

The 3 has also made good moves against today’s pace when looking at the stretch call of longer races (Lines 1,2,9,10)…Contender

The 4 has defeated the pace-setting 5 twice, but I feel this one will be compromised by being part of the early pace…OUT

The 5 is sure fast but anytime it has had to fight 1C or 2C it has not won. That is what I see today with the presence of the 4 and 7…OUT

The 6 comes from too far back against today’s pace…OUT

The 7 should be up against after trying hard to fight the 5…OUT

8 Looks slow against today’s pace…OUT

I give a slight edge to the 1 over the 3 but hopefully can bet both.

Thanks for putting these races up Pete. TuP is my home track. I live near Phoenix. We'll see how I do.

TuP 2:

1 Slow OUT
2 E 22.0 with 1.5L lead. Won't stand up. OUT
3 S In
4 E 21.4 with 1L lead. Slow last fraction. Out.
5 Fighter. can win without lead. In
6 Slow. OUT
7 Looks like can't get on top of fractions of 21.4 and 21.3 earlier. OUT

The 3 and the 7 look like they are having trouble running to the fractions they used to run but I'm not sure if their running style has changed.

I'll take the 5.

Scratch in 2nd at TuP
 

#7 is scratched.

TuP Race #7:

There appears to be sufficient speed in here with the 5 (21.3) and the 7 (21.4) to make the race run OTE.

There is a tandem from 2/10 that the 1 and 4 ran in which is much faster than what anyone else can do (21.2 43.4 56.0) I love fast tandems. The 4 was ahead of the 1. It looks like the 4 can run from off the lead.

The 4 is my choice.

Tim

tup race 2
 

I looked over the race with the :7: out the :4: looks like to be the main contender. I would not throw the :1: out because he seems to be improving comments say checked at start,speed figs are going to the right direction while dropping in class,final furlong also good with a sub 12 sec.


Box the 4 & 1 bet the 1 win and place


Earl J

Results
 

#4 came through for me in the 2nd but then bombs away in the 7th...

Thanks for jumping in guys. Hey Tim, I enjoy following Turf Paradise. It's nice they run Mondays and Tuesdays, days in which I sometimes have mornings off from work. They also have those "about" distances on turf along with the regular distances to spice things up. Maybe we can arrange a full-card matching session sometime.

I'd like to do a full card at TuP sometime. I'm retired and Mondays and Tuesdays work well for me. In the interim, I'll try to get away from looking at final fractions and start hitting a few of these. Nice hit on the 4 here!

Tim

Sounds good. I'll find a day that looks good for me in the next few weeks and see if that works for you too. I'll try to put up at least some of the PP's early enough so others can jump in too if they'd like.