Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

At Woodbine today that is run on polytrack at a mile and a quarter..

This is the 153rd running in Canada. It is the first leg of their triple crown series. The big difference is that the third leg is run at a mile and half on turf. There have been 7 triple crown winners in Canada's history with Wando being the most recent winner of all three legs.

There has been 34 fillies who have won the Queen's Plate. This year, we have the filly Dixie Strike who is a half-sister to last year's winner, Inglorious competing...This is always an interesting race to handicap as it is run at a mile and a quarter like the Kentucky Derby where most have never competed at the distance before.

The main contenders (imho) are:

River Rush..last line....won the Plate Trial in track record fashion..it was a fast day but still made a visually impressive 2nd fraction turn move....won last race by 6 1/4 lengths....major contender

Strait of Dover-last line...impressive race in Marine stakes- won by 6 lengths - morning line favorite of Queen's Plate....contender..

Classic Bryce--has faced some tough competitors..but has finished 2nd or 3rd behind some of the top contenders in today's race. 3rd line back is best line

Golden Ridge- trainer Mark Casse has three uncoupled runners in the race...last line and third line back for evalutions..3rd line back was on turf but today's race is run on polytrack...and turf runners do well on polytrack...

Dixie Strike- one of two fillies in the race and she is the half-sister to last year's winner, Inglorious, so it is obvious that her connections have been pointing for this race all along..last line, lost the Oaks to Irish Mission, but that must be deem a prep for today as the 2nd line back is her best line..adds blinkers- major contender

Big Creek...Todd Pletcher's entrant...at first glance, I didn't think much of this colt, but upon further review, he has some interesting lines...last line -lost by 6 1/4 lengths to one of today's favorite, River Rush. 2nd line back, he lost to the horse, Incredicat who set the fast pace of the Plate Trial...Incredicat is not in today's race...3rd line back...I have little knowledge of Pen race course but Pletcher had In Lingerie run in a similiar run prep race at a mile distance. I had In Lingerie as my top contender for the Kentucky Oaks but she was scratched..I had her on top for the Black Eye Susan, also.....last line is interesting since Big Creek was up close against the best pace of race of all of the contenders besides River Rush. Big Creek ran against fractions of 47.1and 110.4 and a mile mark of 135.4 whereas most contenders are coming fractions that are two to five seconds slower...I am going to put Big Creek as a contender even though he lost to River Rush and using some voodoo ways, I am going to cut the last line at the mile mark and use it accordingly..

Irish Mission...last line..the other filly in the race...won the Oaks but is coming off some slower fractions...contender...

I am concluding with Big Creek, River Rush, and Strait of Dover as the major contenders....

Good skills...