Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

This is from yesterday, Janaury 25. It's the ninth race at Gulfstream Park. Like today the weather was gorgeous. The track was fast and firm. The place was packed.

Here are the past performaces using The Daily Racing Form. For the setup I used the most common distance among my contenders --1 1/16 -- even though the race was run at a mile around two turns.

#6 and #8 were scratched.

111 3/5 was the fastest second call. It was shared by #2 and #7.

For the final time I used the fastest finish -- #7's 141 2/5.

For track record I used the actual track record of 138.17 (rounded down to 138), not the three year best record.

Note, I did not use any speed ratings or pars. There were no adjustments for track class or distance, other than the internal energy variants.

I've marked "NC" for Non-Contender. The pacelines I used are underlined.

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                            S Y N E R G I S M   I I

                            * * * * * * * * * * * *



RACE:  012509     DIST: -  8.5 FURLONGS    COMMENTS:  GP 9th-Turf



SETUP  111.3 141.2





NAME        F W     E P     S P     T T     F X     W X

---------------------------------------------------------

#2 Wayw    55.00   55.41   54.58   54.55   54.90   54.95

#3 Liq     54.76   54.98   54.54   55.24   54.23   54.50

#4 E       54.94   54.67   55.21   54.93   55.21   55.07

#7 Heik    54.88   54.71   55.05   54.37   55.40   55.14

#9 Into    54.91   54.11   55.70   55.26   55.47   55.19





                          



         F 1     F 2     F 3     S C

Pace    56.03   56.25   57.29   55.41                  SC B/L

=====================================        ===================

#2 Way  56.03   54.20   53.76   55.41        #2 Wayw    0.00

#7 Hei  55.42   53.34   55.38   54.71        #3 Liq     1.90

#4 E    54.68   54.66   55.74   54.67        #7 Heik    3.11

#3 Liq  54.36   56.25   54.10   54.98        #4 E       3.26

#9 Int  53.66   55.05   57.29   54.11        #9 Into    5.75





                           

                                    RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #2 Way      1     1     4     3     4     3     5     2   67.22

  #9 Int      2     4     1     1     1     1     1     2   65.49

  #4 E        2     3     2     2     3     2     2     1   66.23

  #7 Hei      3     3     3     4     2     1     3     3   66.26

  #3 Liq      4     2     4     1     5     4     4     4   67.15

Analysis:

#2 has a big FW 55.00 advantage

#2 has a big EP 55.41 advantage

#9 is the best late with SP and LP rank of #1, he's also tops in TT, FX and WX. But look at that F1 deficiency: 53.66.

On the other hand his F3 is gigantic: 57.29. I would only consider a horse like this on the grass. Today is a turf race so he's okay.

As far as I'm concerned these are the only two horses worth considering.

Now for the odds? #2 was a healthy price and #9 was gigantic. Nice indeed. Especially considering the sophisticated paceline procedure -- last race for all. LOL

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