Sartin Followup study
 

Here will be a look at the winning races shown in Followup's #77-88. I think this is a great way to really see what was going on and should definitely help anyone wanting to take some time to absorb it.I just finished first issue and already little patterns emerge(lets see if it continues!)

I will show for each race where a BL/BL is shown the following:

1) Surface/Structure - for ex DS = dirt sprint and TR = turf route etc
2) The WINNING horses paceline used for ex last line or 2 back etc
3) The WINNING horse's BL/BL tier BEFORE hiding low odds favs for ex tier 1 or tier 3 etc
4) The WIN price payoff

**Unless otherwise noted the winning line used is the SAME dist/surface as today's race**

I started with issue #77 cause that is the beginning of the "Validator" program.

Hope this helps and here is Followup #77 races.
Followup # 77:
DS - last line - tier 3 = $124.80
DS - last line - tier 1 = $21.60
TR - line 5 - tier 1 = $20.80
DS - last line - tier 2 = $18.80
TR - last line (turf sprint projection) - tier 2(tie) = $10.20
TR - 2 back - tier 3 = $12.00
TR (11f marathon) - 3 back - tier 1 = $20.00
DS - 3 back (DR extraction) - tier 1 = $10.00
DR - last line - tier 3 = $25.00
TR - 2 back - tier 2 = $29.00
DS - 2 back - tier 5 = $12.20
DS - last line - tier 2 = $10.60
TS - line 4(DS used) - tier 1 = $32.20
DS - last line - tier 1 = $17.60



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHYVCVq9SH0

Richie,

Hi. Thanks for taking the time to do this. If no one has said this before, let me be the first: you're a great teacher! Not just that, you're a de facto Charter teaching member of PIRCO!

Best regards,

Jon :)

Hi Rich...What track are these results from??

It can possibly give us a sort of "track profile"

mike

Morning gang!

I have added Followup #78 and will show both here.

**Morning Mike. Good idea man. I will put that together tonight /tomorrow for the 2 that are done and going forward will include track.**

:)

Followup # 77:
DS - last line - tier 3 = $124.80
DS - last line - tier 1 = $21.60
TR - line 5 - tier 1 = $20.80
DS - last line - tier 2 = $18.80
TR - last line (turf sprint projection) - tier 2(tie) = $10.20
TR - 2 back - tier 3 = $12.00
TR (11f marathon) - 3 back - tier 1 = $20.00
DS - 3 back (DR extraction) - tier 1 = $10.00
DR - last line - tier 3 = $25.00
TR - 2 back - tier 2 = $29.00
DS - 2 back - tier 5 = $12.20
DS - last line - tier 2 = $10.60
TS - line 4(DS used) - tier 1 = $32.20
DS - last line - tier 1 = $17.60

Followup #78
DS - 3 back - tier 2 = $30.40
TR - 2 back - tier 4 = $21.60
DR - 3 back - tier 5 = $21.60
DS - 3 back - tier 2 = $17.40
DS - 4 back - tier 3 = $46.40
DS - 2 back - tier 1(tie) = $8.20
DR - 2 back - tier 3 = $40.40 ** ALL contenders used projected sprint lines**
DS - 4 back - tier 3 = $19.40
DS - 2 back - tier 3 = $20.20
TR - last line - tier 4 = $15.80
DR - last line - tier 2 = $10.20
DR (7.5f) - 3 back - tier 2 = $41.20 ** WINNER and 4/6 cont used extracted lines
TR - last line - tier 1 = $11.00
DS - 3 back - tier 2(tie) = $15.80
DR - 4 back - tier 4 = $12.20
DR - last line - tier 2 = $7.60

Rich ..This is some interesting stuff..

From what I see...

lets eliminate tier 4 & 5 winners...that leaves us with 25 out of your 30 races..not that bad

So now where looking at only 3 horses in the race and if one of them is under 5/2 odds ...we have the 2 horses betting situations which we talked about in the past, with some nice paying prices :eek:

one question: Paceline selection criteria:


Same surface/distance....Exactly ? or can it be off like a 1/16?

In the money finish or best adjusted speed ratings or best unadjusted speed ratings rating

thxs

Mike

Here are Followup's # 77 and # 78 with the track for each race now shown at the start of each line.

So it is:
track
Surf/Dist
WINNING pace line used
WINNER'S Bl/Bl tier before hiding low odds favs
Win price

Followup # 77:
Dmr - DS - last line - tier 3 = $124.80
Crc - DS - last line - tier 1 = $21.60
Crc - TR - line 5 - tier 1 = $20.80
Lrl - DS - last line - tier 2 = $18.80
Sar - TR - last line (turf sprint projection) - tier 2(tie) = $10.20
Sar - TR - 2 back - tier 3 = $12.00
Sar - TR (11f marathon) - 3 back - tier 1 = $20.00
Sar - DS - 3 back (DR extraction) - tier 1 = $10.00
Sar - DR - last line - tier 3 = $25.00
Sar - TR - 2 back - tier 2 = $29.00
Crc - DS - 2 back - tier 5 = $12.20
Sar - DS - last line - tier 2 = $10.60
Del - TS - line 4(DS used) - tier 1 = $32.20
Del - DS - last line - tier 1 = $17.60

Followup #78
Aqu - DS - 3 back - tier 2 = $30.40
Aqu - TR - 2 back - tier 4 = $21.60
Aqu - DR - 3 back - tier 5 = $21.60
Crc - DS - 3 back - tier 2 = $17.40
Lrl - DS - 4 back - tier 3 = $46.40
Hol - DS - 2 back - tier 1(tie) = $8.20
Hol - DR - 2 back - tier 3 = $40.40 ** ALL contenders used projected sprint lines**
Hol - DS - 4 back - tier 3 = $19.40
Hol - DS - 2 back - tier 3 = $20.20
Hol - TR - last line - tier 4 = $15.80
Hol - DR - last line - tier 2 = $10.20
Hol - DR (7.5f) - 3 back - tier 2 = $41.20 ** WINNER and 4/6 cont extracted lines
Hol - TR - last line - tier 1 = $11.00
Tp - DS - 3 back - tier 2(tie) = $15.80
Tp - DR - 4 back - tier 4 = $12.20
Tp - DR - last line - tier 2 = $7.60

Adding Followup #79
 

Adding Followup #79.
Only a few races as there were quite a few examples of races that should be passed.

I didn't include those here as they were to help folks recognize chalky/passing situations.

Followup # 77:
Dmr - DS - last line - tier 3 = $124.80
Crc - DS - last line - tier 1 = $21.60
Crc - TR - line 5 - tier 1 = $20.80
Lrl - DS - last line - tier 2 = $18.80
Sar - TR - last line (turf sprint projection) - tier 2(tie) = $10.20
Sar - TR - 2 back - tier 3 = $12.00
Sar - TR (11f marathon) - 3 back - tier 1 = $20.00
Sar - DS - 3 back (DR extraction) - tier 1 = $10.00
Sar - DR - last line - tier 3 = $25.00
Sar - TR - 2 back - tier 2 = $29.00
Crc - DS - 2 back - tier 5 = $12.20
Sar - DS - last line - tier 2 = $10.60
Del - TS - line 4(DS used) - tier 1 = $32.20
Del - DS - last line - tier 1 = $17.60

Followup #78:
Aqu - DS - 3 back - tier 2 = $30.40
Aqu - TR - 2 back - tier 4 = $21.60
Aqu - DR - 3 back - tier 5 = $21.60
Crc - DS - 3 back - tier 2 = $17.40
Lrl - DS - 4 back - tier 3 = $46.40
Hol - DS - 2 back - tier 1(tie) = $8.20
Hol - DR - 2 back - tier 3 = $40.40 ** ALL contenders used projected sprint lines**
Hol - DS - 4 back - tier 3 = $19.40
Hol - DS - 2 back - tier 3 = $20.20
Hol - TR - last line - tier 4 = $15.80
Hol - DR - last line - tier 2 = $10.20
Hol - DR (7.5f) - 3 back - tier 2 = $41.20 ** WINNER and 4/6 cont extracted lines
Hol - TR - last line - tier 1 = $11.00
Tp - DS - 3 back - tier 2(tie) = $15.80
Tp - DR - 4 back - tier 4 = $12.20
Tp - DR - last line - tier 2 = $7.60

Followup #79:
Dmr - TR - last line - tier 2 = $28.80
Sar - TR - 2 back - tier 3 = $12.00
SA - DS - 2 back - tier 1 = $10.40

Hi Rich... I enjoy your presentation. This caused me to go back and look at the followup and I have what may be a dumb question. On page 24 of Followup #77 Doc says

"AFTER HIDES, we bet with impunity any horse in our Top 3 Bottom Line/Betting Line TIERS (NOT RANKS) as confirmed by the Rankings in Validator"

What the heck does the line as "confirmed by Rankings in Validator" mean and would you be able to translate that for someone using SPEC or RDSS.

One difference?
 

Hi Richie,

Thanks very much for posting this. It might interest you that the average odds for the top three tiers here - 1. 5-1/ 2. 9-1 /3. 10-1 - are almost exactly those that I found for TE this year, which, as you know, is highly correlated with BL/BL. So obviously the wager value of the Sartin factors continues to be potent. One thing I'd add, that I mentioned in the TE post I made in your autopaceline thread - that I found a higher hit rate for #1 TE (and thus BL/BL) than I found in any of the late Follow Ups when I went through them, which, like the figures you've posted here, show a pretty much equal hit rate for the top three tiers. People should check out their own records, but if the software has improved in this way, as I think it has, recent races would be more accurate than those from a decade ago.

BTW, for anyone who's wondering whether the simplified Sartin strategy of the late Follow Ups still works, I hit five long shots over the weekend, 17-1, 16-1, 11-1, 10-1, and 11-1, and barely missed another 10-1 using it. Admittedly they don't always cluster like this, but value is definitely still out there for Sartin players.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Quick correction
 

Just wanted to correct figures that might have been misleading. The average odds I was citing was for all longshots only - i.e. above #1 - 3-1, #2 4-1, #3 5-1.