Breeders Cup Sprint Energy
 

Some screenshots in Energy and THOROMATION for the Breeders Cup Sprint. Even though the warning flag came to use the alternate adjustment which equalizes Total Energy I stuck with the automatic adjustment as I did not want to penalize faster horses.I used 2 pacelines for Capt. Candyman Can.

The numbers after the horses name is the paceline used.

BC Sprint Continued
 

More Screenshots in Energy and THOROMATION. Notice how high quality sprinters expend their Energy as sustained even though visually they look Early. This is what seperated Doc Sartin from the rest.

BC Sprint Final Screenshots
 

The ML favorite Zensational according to these readouts looks vulnerable. Here are some THOROMATION readouts. Capt. Candyman Can is the DPH and also in Energy he has an even UXR which in many cases is indicative of your top sustained horse. Fatal Bullet also looks strong here.

Since Fatal Bullet is also an E and Cost is an E/P, doesn't the loss of ground to Zen in the MP panel point more to Capt3 and Gayego, on the theory that if Fatal can't keep up with the front runner, the good 3rd fraction kick will not be there?

Thanks,

Bill L

Bill I have no problem agreeing with your assessment. The front runners Zensational; Cost Of Freedom; and Fatal Bullet are all on the inside next to each other. This could set this race up for either Capt. Candyman or Gayego. I am pretty sure Gayego will be bet well but I think Capt. Candyman may be overlooked.

Good analysis Bill.

Houndog:

One thing we can't see from the form, but can view from race videos is how the filly Fleeting Spirit runs. Last year in the BC turf sprint the fractions were 20.7-41.8-105.3 and she closed from 8.8 lengths to 2.2 lengths between the 2nd call and stretch before finishing 4th.

You can google Fleeting Spirit and find this year's videos. By the way her last was at 5 furlongs on Arc day, but the form is showing that she ran in the 12f Arc - it actually was the Prix de la Abayye (SP?). Anyway, she lost about 6 lengths at start and made up all but about a quarter of a length to finish 2nd. In England earlier in the summer she pressed the pace and shot forward in the last two furlongs and literally weaved her way to win, after a long inquiry into the way she ran. Looks to me to be the best presser to get first run before the come from behind boys like Gayego really get revved up. I was not too impressed with the American mid pack contingent allowing for the expected pace duel up front.



Best of luck,


Bill L.

Bill I have been doing some research on Fleeting Spirit also. This is what I said about her in an earlier post.


Breeders Cup Sprint: Only one European horse entered and a four year old filly at that. The horse is Fleeting Spirit trained by Jeremy Noseda and a change of riders from T.P. Queally to Frankie Dettori. The owners did not like the ride that Queally gave in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp where she was beaten only a neck after a slow start. T.P. Queally is said to be one of the rising stars in European racing so the change comes as somewhat as a surprise but perhaps the owners prefer the more experienced Dettori in this race. This horse has been compared to Lochsong who raced in the early nineties. Lochsong was 2 times sprinting champion of the year in Europe where the girls race against the boys all of the time. The horse is 8-1 ML so she does offer value.

Once again Bill I appreciate your analysis. If Fleeting Spirit behaves herself at the gate and breaks well she could be very tough. Thanks for reminding me of her. I have to use her in this race.-----Houndog

Bill,

Here's TrackMaster's PDF form for Fleeting Spirit, which is correct. As you pointed out to me, RDSS has that last line wrong (for reason's I've been investigating all evening).

Attachment 18027

Horses are usually stopping after running that fast, so the lengths gained may be a bit misleading. On saying that though, the race looks to have a similar shape to the come from mars Midnight Lute win last year.

Repeat pattern???

Collapsed up front .



A fine example of The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion or Match Up in action