Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Hollywood Friday Night (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5729)

RichieP 05-29-2009 11:03 AM

Hollywood Friday Night
 
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Race 7

Proj pace from #8 Best Mon
22.0 - 45.0

RichieP 05-29-2009 11:06 AM

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Here are the full pps with lines lit up by today's projected pace.

Middle tab will show tandems when they exist.

RichieP 05-29-2009 11:07 AM

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...

mikesal57 05-29-2009 12:15 PM

I'll start....


Dont like the #1...out

mike

thats it

jms62 05-29-2009 12:50 PM

Contenders :2:, :3:, :5:

tfm 05-29-2009 12:56 PM

#2

just wish he weren't adding distance. the worry is that he'll be with the pace (too close) early.

mikesal57 05-29-2009 01:24 PM

This kind of a race would usually be a pass...young horses with a few races...can u really define the 8 as an early horse after 2 races...
I think that race was impressive ..fighting from the half to stretch, then drawing off...can he sit behind the 5 and let others fight him..too many questions on how the race will be run

mike

mikesal57 05-29-2009 01:26 PM

The 3 and 9 really didnt make up much ground..but the 2 made up 7 lts from start to finish vs this pace..:eek:

mikesal57 05-29-2009 01:30 PM

profile
 
1 Attachment(s)
speed and inside has been good at this distance..

Bill Lyster 05-29-2009 03:45 PM

I agree with Mike on the 8. With a %med of 68 he probably does not need the lead today and may not choose to take it as others in the field with more early-like %meds might be more interested in having it.

The question mark for me is how to evaluate the improvement shown by the 5 when it jumped to 8 furlongs. TE improved almost 2.5 points! The horse's 1st start was early &fading with %med = 70; the maiden win looked more like a fighting presser, but the attempt to wire the mile field, even with the big improvement resulted in an early like %med of 69.2. this horse has been off 63 days, has had 5 bullet works and one 2nd best at 5F out of 27 and 2 works ago ran a workout 2/5ths faster than the mile race it lost!! That being the case the only question might be why drop back in distance to a sprint? To me, indications are that this horse is better now than its last race. If you use the last race this horse is 6 pts better early and 3 pts better combined.

I think the only other real contender is Mike's 8. Might have to hit the ALL button to hit the trifecta here.


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