Martian Alert - Monday Hollywood - Race 5
 

Monday Race 5, Hollywood, 5.5 furlongs, 14 entrants, 5 or 6 of which need lead, a couple of duds and only 2-3 horses that can run from 6th or 7th position. And, Richie, there is at least one who wants the lead at the stretch call.



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OK Bill!

Here are the conditions

the pps with tandem showing on middle tab

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Bill
The FPLR (Fastest pace last race) is the #11 Oldtophatandtails TANDEM race.

The only way #11 can win if the pace wil be slower than 44 and changes.
10 races won 1
In 5 of those races he was leading at the stretch or was less than 1 length off the leader. Is a BUF Backs Up Frequently.
At 10-1 I would bet him P/S

Looking for horses that can sit 3rd, 4th behind 1c 22.5 (maybe a tick or two quicker)

#1 and #11

Projected Pace and contender screenshot.


As IBJ suggests, if the 2c is quicker than 44.8, it probably means there is nothing for #11 here but maybe place money.

With at least 5 E's in the race and the 11 whose best form is as an EP, and he is coming into form, how much concern should we have that he will get caught up in the logjam at the front or put a different way, how do we assess his comfort factor in that perhaps 5 other horses are going to default into "his - #11's" normal running position?

Shouldn't we look to horses whose comfort zone at the first call is from between 5th to 7th and who still show a power moved to be near the lead at the stretch?