I like reading Andy Beyer, but....
 

i get impression he does not understand The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy exertion

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050302026.html



If you run fast early you will decelerate faster than normal as energy depletion kicks in, the result of this is a slower overall time compared to the norm or par, which then results in a not so good speed figure.

Maybe John should send him his 2009 Kentucky Derby Fatchart to help him understand

Hi Charlie..

Beyer summed it up in his last paragraph what I figured out..hopefully ..lol

Even with a ground saving trip, the explosion he made in the stretch was amazing...I believe the off track was a big part for him.

Does anyone have Tomlinsons off track numbers to confirm this?

mike

I guess if it doesn't subscribe to your pet theories it doesn't exist? Give us a break, Andy.

The top two CSP ran first and second. Cold exacta. Bingo.

This was published online days before the race.

Free.

I, of course, was "too smart" to bet it.

http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/CD_090502C.htm

David:

Thanks a bunch for posting that Index. WOW!! Can you believe that? It was right there for the taking.. :) I was another one of the brilliant ones that would have never had this horse via any means that would be considered anything remotely close to conventional handicapping.

Incredible stuff. Is that from CJ's site by the way?

Have a Good day and Good Skill Always.

Vinnie

Yes, Vinnie. That's CJ's site.

Have a good one today! :>)

Cj did feel though that the PF numbers were too low to warrant a bet.

Looking at the post race evidence

CJ number
FPLR
3rd run
Jockey booking
Breeding

and the non show of horses like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk ( though i'm not sure if that made much difference) it's not really the shocker many people are making out and a :cool: skill goes to those that found this 50-1 shot Pre-race imho

I like many never saw it :( new specs needed imho :D

Calvin Borel last 3 years

Mine That Bird
Denis of Cork
Street Sense


Seems we may need to look very carefully at the horses Calvin is riding in future regardless of what the betting market and Beyer speedfigure are telling us.

Good point Charlie D,

Beyer made his fortune by selling his speed figures. I don't think he made anywhere near that kind of money betting on them. When I read the article, Beyer said that the figure for the derby would have been a 95 if the winner had not been in the race which would have been one of the lowest in history. If you take the winner out of every derby, my guess is the second horse has run less than a 95 many times. The final time for the derby was a 2:02 and change which is very representative of many derbys in the last 30 years.

I personally am very thankful for having Beyer's figures in the racing form. It gives me good prices on the horses I bet.

How many BIG PROFILE voices are there in horse racing today?

We need this fellow as wildly inaccurate as ever but he is good for the sport.