Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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shoeless 12-19-2008 09:16 PM

Beulah
 
I was wondering if anyone plays this track as they are now allowing wagering on Twin Spires.They have an interesting card tomorrow it must be starter allowance day they sure are running a lot of them.

albatross 12-19-2008 11:18 PM

Beulah
 
Have played few times always thuoght good longshot trk.Can't say favor's front or late pace.Well give it try could be gold mine for you.I like cheap horse and that and tam fit bill.

shoeless 12-20-2008 01:42 AM

I prefer the cheaper horses as well

Cincyhorseplayer 12-20-2008 09:54 AM

They always have the starter allowance marathon at Beulah before Christmas and today is closing day.This is one of the few days that Beulah has that is competitve and beatable.

We had an enormous amount of rain here in Ohio so pay attention to how the races are being run Shoeless.The rail gets dead as a doornail real easily at Bulah and it's not cold enough to freeze.It usually plays to speed outside on days like this but if it even remotely looks thick and/or heavy be prepared to back closers.And if so,don't use the Sartin formula for sustained pace,add the 2nd half time(TURN TIME+3RD FRACTION) to the 2nd call.It's more accurate at Beulah.I know,I've bet the track for over a decade.Good luck!

shoeless 12-20-2008 10:36 AM

Cincy,Thanks for the info ,I probably will stay away as I hate to bet off tracks.But I will watch a few to see if any bias exists.

Cincyhorseplayer 12-20-2008 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless (Post 45139)
Cincy,Thanks for the info ,I probably will stay away as I hate to bet off tracks.But I will watch a few to see if any bias exists.

Shoeless,one last note.There is predictable bias and unpredictable bias at Beulah.A few days of rain and the track can be unpredictably biased to the extreme but I think today that the track will favor off pace horses as our overall weather has been blustery.I could be wrong but if you see signs of it,go for it.Beulah can pay some big prices and pay extra attention to Route to sprint horses.

Oh and do yourself a favor.Be extremely wary of time restricted races there(n1y,n2y)they are the most unformful races on the circuit.

shoeless 12-20-2008 12:20 PM

Cincy,Thanks for the additional info.I see where you will be playing Tampa this year,in sprint races it will usually favor outside posts.If you going to play it seriously I recommend Jim Mazur's Tampa Handicapper.There is quite a bit of pertinent info in there.

shoeless 12-20-2008 02:21 PM

Cincy,Should have taken your advice about off pace horses my top SP won at 8-1

Jonathan Steele 12-24-2008 03:52 PM

"There is predictable bias and unpredictable bias at Beulah."

That is why I generally stay away from off-track and post-off-track days at that track. I spent far too many hours trying to figure why races turned out the way they did, as well as, you know, getting frustrated when they didn't.

When the 'numbers' work, they 'work' at Beulah. Then you get the unpredictability of using solely numbers to analyze a race during the aforementioned off-track days, and then they don't work.

If you can spot and capitalize on track biases (I can't--yet) then go for it. If you can't, wait a day or two after the track drys out.

Horse racing is unpredictable enough (to a certain degree) without an additional factor to screw you up.

Regards,

Jon

Rverge 12-24-2008 05:21 PM

ahhh yes beu! i recall a route race many moons ago where the horse i bet @ 50-1 or so was a good 25 lghs. heading to turn 2. in the mud, when lo and behold the fav. comes up and wins by 2 lengths.
Rverge

i like the last race at NP to night. the jock is Overweight but in this Long race i think it will be first at all the "Poles". i think it will run like it had "8" legs. i think before the race is over the trainer "JC" along with the "jock" will have the Prizes already Given up mostly to "little ones".
being the last race the jock will be so long winded he'll have to say
MERRY CHRISTMASS


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