Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

I've moved this discussion from the selections folder. Feel free to weigh in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54 (Post 38874)

Not necessarily counter energy, David, but what has been winning in Del Mar dirt routes. The 3 speed horses going for the lead just helped confirm that it should run how it's been running - sustained. Yes, these are maidens but they had a couple of pace lines to look at.

Without getting into all the reasons, the horse was actually a fairly logical contender here. The only unknown was how he would handle the poly but the trainer had a good record with turf to poly in limited starts. The BRIS par here was 76 and he had run a 74 on the turf up north at a bit lower purse.

50 to 1 was out of line. The good thing is that we didn't let the odds scare us off and we bet him.

BTW, if he doesn't have to take up at the top of the stretch, he wins it fairly easily.

Thanks, Jimmy.

Lou, I guess I didn't make myself clear. Yes, I certainly agree late runners are doing well at DMR routes. Perhaps not quite as well as last year, but still that's the running style you want to bet on, everything else being equal.

And in general I think it's perfectly acceptable to use turf pacelines when handicapping a DMR dirt route.

My only point was that using counter energy for the place horse is dangerous in a race with many unknowns.

Personally, I'm not that big a fan of counter energy in the best of circumstances. It just didn't work well consistently enough to be a reliable indicator. Let me rephrase that in a way that is meaningful. I have lost a lot of money using counter energy horses for the second place in the exacta when that was the only reason to include such a horse in my exotic bet.

When many horses have unknown abilities it makes it even a shakier proposition.

I'm talking about for second place in the exacta only. Hope I've clarified that now.

And I hope you blew some money foolishly with that score. I sure did!

:>)