MatchUp Positioning
 

Don P. on the other thread made a statement ,".....actual positioning."

RichieP stressed that to no end , sprinkled with some " intuition" call on a disagreeing with what a line says vs what a horse, in reality, is going to "actually" do, or has he like to say, "feel".

1) Late horses- are an example of reality. No matter how fast or slow the
pace, they are almost always at the backend of the pack, and only win,
as Mr. Bradshaw says, "when everyhorse in the race stops and waits for
him to pass him."
Adjustments, and /or moving him up in position based on 1st fraction
velocity would not, for the most part, constitute "actual postioning" in the
real world, what most likely would happen , unless every horse in the
race, used up all their energy.

2) 1st call- Richie once mentioned, I think, that Mr. Bradshaw is aware of the
starting positions of various distances and tracks.
A starting position of a 5 furlong to the 1st call vs a starting
position at 1 1/8 , without adjustments, where are their
"actual positions" to the 1st call to begin the MatchUp if
today is 7 1/2 furlongs or 1 and 70yards ?
Now thats where Richie and Mr. Bradshaw post come in with
looking at multiple lines , doing two MatchUps with mixed
distances, surface, and picking the best horse out of group of
one track vs another track, etc.,

Makes for deeper study.

VoodooFan

move
 

I think I'm starting to see it

Its always been a dark cloud in my confidence that my horses
are too far back at the break - first call 2nd fraction

I would be watching the race and my horse would be way far back
It would move up 6th - 5th - 4th. but by the top of the stretch they would be done

looking at many lines and seeing what a horse needs to win
is helping me

I'm starting to see the Pace of the Race in my lines

Thank You

the important factor as you are matching up positions with times is that at some point you have to see the weakness of the race,contenderswill start to appear...

Very nice.

That's that thing that most attracted me to The MatchUp in the first place ,
listening to Mr. Bradshaw toss horse's as he goes thru the form faster than
42nd Degree Aikido Master.

To me, the most attractive part of the MatchUp is in its Art of Elimination
and solid reason to eliminate.

Thanks Don.

Example
 

:( Just lost a practice race.

Talking about "WEAKNESS" , and a stupid mistake.

Horse attributes/positive :
1) won 4 in a row
2) Pure Early
3) MUST go wire to wire (must be 1st at EVERY break call)
4) Needs at least a 1 length lead at 1st call (23 ,23.1)

Did'nt consider negatives :

1) Any sprinter or horse anywhere that can possibly break faster, no
matter what his shape.
2) NOT a proven fighter. In fact, has NEVER fought.

VoodooFan

I don't have a 10,000 race data base but from looking at a LOT of races concerning positioning when predicting who will be where in the pack of todays race I will look at how many times they have this position in their last 10 races. Horses who have had the lead 6 times will with little exception in todays race will lead a horse who has only had the lead 3 times. The same goes for mid and back of the pack. A horse who has been in last position in 6 out of his last 10 races will be last in todays race if the other horses have each been last less than 6 times.

Note. Comparing sprint vrs dirt. You have to move up far back sprinters when comparing route pacelines. example sprint 6th position may move up to a route 2 or 3 position.



Mike.

what race was that voodoo? mike i know what your saying ..your describing the horses running stlye but where does he like to be on the pace of today's race?

The Break
 

One would think this is the case, and it is most of the time. You can't win all races.

For instance, the GATE position at 1 mile to the 1st call :Sprinter vs Router.

You would think the sprinter would at least BREAK fast and ahead of the router most times, and usually can, but most times is BEHIND the router at the 1st call , and sometimes even the break.

I wonder if study on horses BREAK habits is in order.

From what I understand so far, the BREAK is only to see if the Early horse can pass horses to be 1st at the 1st call AND win the race.

I think thats what the term "WIRE TO WIRE " means.

From what I understand also, if a Route horse is 2nd at the Break call (23),
he ceases to be Early, unless he shows he can be competitive and / or win from that postion.

A sprinter breaks from a longer chute, while a router with 1mile experience is familiar with breaking on a turn.

I see a good percentage of routers :

1) Out breaking sprinters , before sprinter takes a brief lead

2) Sprinters out breaking router , before router takes lead

You would think in both scenarios, the route horse would be hurt, but sometimes, the sprinter does not effect the router, and the router goes on to win the race, or an Other Than Early horse wins ,that you left out because his 1st fraction did'nt meet projection, but you projected the WRONG 1st call projection of what the sprinter would force the router to run.

If a horse BREAKS position 2nd before 1st call at 21.2 and the best break is
4th at a 22 before hitting the 1st call, isn't there some influence?

Isn't the BREAK half the distance to the 1st call ? Isn't that significant?

Can be very frustrating.

VoodooFan

Sure wish I could remember that race, sorry.

VoodooFan

TO VOODOO......i really don'tuse where a horse breaks until i need it...to establish the pace of the race i only look for the one's at the two furlong call..as for routers taking the lead on sprinters the way to start seeing that before the race is to qualify the speed and see if they have ever given up the lead in a sprint or route...some of these horses are "pretend" lead horses and routers can take the lead if they want it....