Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- RDSS (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=38)

- - Nov 11, 1AQU Claiming 35K (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1715)

Nov 11, 1AQU Claiming 35K

Here is an interesting race from yesterday Nov 11 at Aqueduct. Race #1 8f Claiming 35,000. I'll show how I analysed this race in RDSS, using some of the Match Up tools as well as energy analysis. (Scratch the 1A)

First I scanned all the horses' Past Performances looking for Early horses. Along the way, I assigned Running Styles (though I am still learning that, I'm better at it than the program is right now).

Here is the 1st Early

Here's another Early

Here's the other Early, though it wins also as an EP. Though Perceptor ranked its last line as the best, I picked all 4 of it's winning route lines to see what 1st and 2nd call times it handled.

Matching the #9 and the #8 to the #5, these Early horses cannot get the lead from #5, so I'll eliminate them in subsequent screens.

Now for the rest of the horses. #1 is a Sustained sprinter, an unlucky combination, but pay attention to the very fast POR times it ran against.

#2 is an Early Presser, not wild about recent form...

#3 is an Early Presser or Presser. Though not his best line, I think he'll more likely run like his 6th line, so I used that to represent him.

#6 ran in 3 Tandems, as shown by its Tandem screen. Both times it beat #7. Once it was beaten by #2. I'll use Tandem #2 to represent #6 (and also #7)

#7 A Presser of some kind. Tandem screen shows it was beat twice by #6 and once by #2.

The Analyses screens give an overview of the contenders as well as a (somewhat) familiar energy distribution analysis. On the Original screen (upper), the Running Style column (RS) shows what collection of runners we have. The E horse #5 can get the lead from the other Earlies, slow down a bit, and no one else can catch him: he may go wire to wire.. The #1 Sustained Sprinter against faster POR than the Early horse may be given some energy credit for the positions he gained. The Tandem numbers next to the track code remind us that the #6 and #7 ran against each other. The highlighted horse names are links back to each horse's Past Performance for further investigation.

If the BL/BL screen were working, we'd look there, but it's not yet, so the Perceptor screen shows some of the same thing. Different from Speculator, I show the horse owning the best (or 100%) number in any factor column as 0.0, so we can more easily see how close or far away its competitors are. Same information, different presentation. The Perceptor Total Rank is the same. Here we see the #5 and #2 are the 2 most Early energy distribution, while the #1 is the counter-energy. The same information is shown in raw form on the Primary factors screen (TPRs), also showing that of the 2 earliest energy horses, the #5 had much the better Total Energy, or CPR.

Interesting confirming evidence of the Match Up from an energy distribution analysis angle.