Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Straight outta the matchup forum (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15375)

The Pook 12-20-2022 12:57 AM

Straight outta the matchup forum
 
2 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 148439)
Thanks cratman. It seems there is a lot more interest in this format. Hopefully more folks will start putting up a race or 2. Would like to see how others approach races.
Tim

Okay here is one from my weekend that was straight forward. The matchup at its purest. All I needed to know was in the first screenshot. The #2 is an early with by far the best first quarter. Two races back a 21.8. Only the #9 has come close but not recently. An example of an early horse that can no longer get on top of its fractions. The #2 can multi-call fight also as evidenced by his tenth paceline.

How did I know he wouldn't fold this time? I didn't, but guessed he would have an easier time getting the first fraction and then might be able to finish.

And the chart shows exactly that. The #2 gets away with a 22.2 first and thats that. He didn't look back. No trainer stats, no models, just pure matching. They are still out there folks.

$200 on the nose. $880 back. Sweet.

Pook

Lt1 12-20-2022 04:46 AM

Nice work Mike. Thanks for posting this race.
Tim

darmar 12-20-2022 07:12 AM

Great hit Pook. Sometimes they just leap off the page for you.
Darryl

ranchwest 12-20-2022 11:19 AM

Could someone look at this race and tell me if you would have #6 as a Richie longshot? I suspect it would be, but I don't calculate the numbers the same as RDSS. if so, this 2-10-6 was a great trifecta play, paying $89.45 on a 50 cent ticket.


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