12/10 Aqu r6 screenshots
 

Here are the bl/bl and rx screens for r6 winner #7 a Richie Mathie lsp ie non contender ranking in top 5 of both vdc #4 and csr #5.

bl/bl screen

rx screenAttachment 50580

Attachment 50581

Hi Tim,

This is probably going to seem like a really dumb question, and since I do not have the original lines, maybe something in the past performances explains it, but why was 9 a contender but not 7?

It looks from the screen shot like 6,2,9 and 7 were all in a tandem race together. From the adjusted SR, it seems like 7 and 9 finished about the same distance back of 6 which I would guess to be about 4 lengths behind from the difference in adjust speed rating. 7 has a morning line odds of 8-1, and from my own records, I know that the vast majority of winners have morning line odds of 8-1 or less, which was the same morning line odds for your contender the 5.

I am curious why you had 7 in the non contenders?

Thanks,

Dan

Hi Dan. My contenders are always the top 5 ranked Profit and Prime ranked horses therefore the 7 was a non contender for me to start. I do look at all non contenders just in case. However as I pointed out it was the LSP for the race since it was a non contender ranked in the top 5 of both CSR & VDC [Richie Mathies' definition] and did win. Here's the ticket I played
Dec 10 234 PM Complete Aqueduct 5 Double $1.00 3,7/2,3,5-7,9 $12.00 $135.50 $123.50 Hope that helps.
Tim

Thanks Tim,

Brilliant bet. I would have had the horse as a contender because of the tandem race he was in with the other 3 contenders and his proximity to them in that tandem race, but looking at your screenshots, I probably would not have had the courage to bet him. Well done.

Thanks Dan.
Tim

Good example, Tim!

Thanks Ranch. We have Richie Mathie to thank for sharing the angle with us. It's been good to me. Sure do miss him.
Tim

Tim
When you say prime are you referring to the primary factors in the Primary Screen.
Don

Sorry Don I should have said Bris Prime Power rank. I model the primary factors. Sorry for the confusion.
Tim

Thanks for the clarification Tim.
Appreciate your feedback and contribution to the site
as a whole.
Don