10 tips for betting the Kentucky Derby
 

Betting on the Kentucky Derby
doesn't have to be a crapshoot ...



Here's the Top 10 list on what to do or avoid when handicapping the Kentucky Derby. With a little luck, you'll be on your way to winning big on Derby day:

10. Don't wait until the day of the race to decide on what you can afford to wager and the kind of bets you will make. Set a total dollar amount and stick to it, win or lose, unless one of your selections is scratched.

9. Don't try to assimilate so much information that you become confused. Stay with the handicapping formula that works best for you.

8. Thoroughbreds that didn't race as a 2-year-old haven't smelled the roses since the 19th century. Apollo did it in 1882. Other winners of Triple Crown races that year: Vanguard in the Preakness and Forester in the Belmont.

7. No runner with only four career outings has won since Exterminator in 1918. There were so many horses (26) in that year's Preakness that it was run in two divisions. The winners: War Cloud and Jack Hare Jr.

6. Avoid horses with a pedigree that don't display both stamina and speed. In 19 of the past derbies, 13 horses with Buckpasser in their bloodline finished first or second. Ironically, quarter-cracks kept him off the Triple Crown trail, but he won 13 in a row after running second in his 3-year-old debut. His victories in '66 included the Travers, American Derby, Woodward and Jockey Gold Cup.

5. Only one horse has visited the winner's circle without taking a stakes race during his or her early career since Proud Clarion in '67: that was Giacomo in 2005.

4. The last winner after running fifth or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege in '57. Only two horses that were fourth in their last prep since the '50s won: Thunder Gulch in '95 and Sea Hero in '93, both in the Blue Grass.

3. Since 1947, only Sunny's Halo won off two preps - the '83 Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. Forget about horses with one or no stateside preps.

2. Don't waste your money betting the post time favorite to win. Since Spectacular Bid lived up to his odds in '79, only two have: Smarty Jones in '04 and Fusaichi Pegasus in '00. Trifectas offer much bigger returns even when one or two low-priced horses hit the board.

1. Forgot about the horse-for-the-course angle. In the past decade, no 3-year-old that had one or more starts at Churchill Downs repeated in the Run for the Roses. The average finish of nearly 50 runners, including 21 that had previously won over the main track, was well off the board.

4. The last winner after running fifth or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege in '57. Only two horses that were fourth in their last prep since the '50s won: Thunder Gulch in '95 and Sea Hero in '93, both in the Blue Grass.

what about Mandaloun last year - 6th in LA Derby?

Not to be rude but have you ever heard of Justify?

Also the post time favorite has won in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2008.

also 2017 Always Dreaming and 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus without looking too far into it.

"Trust but Verify!" quoth Lt.

I remember California Chrome. Last time I've bet significant amount (for me) to win in the Derby.
Very happy he went off at 5/2 that day :D

For Bill Lyster
 

Mandaloun did NOT win the Kentucky Derby last year.

the lines have changed so much in a week. epicenter was flying now with inside line has dropped. Zanda favorites but is +800 on DRF. go with luck of the draw or take him anyway.

thanks for this

Realistically MOST of us do not have the adequate bankroll to cover this race adeqquately...NONE of these animals have gone 10 panel (and will ever again , especially under 126 lbs), TWO we know nothing about. the track will be "off" in appears..

If not complex enough, a real finacial coverage of this race would strain even a "fat cat's" bankroll

we have SWAMP OR SOMETHIN OTHER THAN QUICK
 

Plenty of speed but not enough money.
Not a surprise which one will be king kong
narrow it to eight or ten an guess wild if the heavens
open an weatherman not been close, now what
1,3,7,9,12,18 movers an shakers my pick is the 12
numbers like chrome justify pharogh

have been wrong a bunch the fun starts at 5 pm

thanks cm