7/6 8 FL #3 Line?
 

In hindsight, the second race back seems to be the right pace line, but I picked the most recent race. Did I get it wrong or is this just one of those things?

The pace line from May 25 was the "correct" pace line: same track, distance, class, and purse. HOWEVER, the track that day was FAST, today's condition was GOOD/SEALED, having been SLOPPY/SEALED and raining until race 7. You are adding a HUGE variable when playing OFF tracks that have been sealed, probably not worth risking your bankroll. Try to stay with dirt tracks rated FAST and races carded for turf actually run on the turf.

Richard

Thanks!

One more thing: if you look at the entire history of this horse, it tends to run best on WET tracks: it won its maiden race on a GOOD track (taken off the turf) on 11/10/18, and ran its fastest race on another GOOD track on 12/31/18. More recently, it ran well on a GOOD track on 2/24/21. As always, hindsight is 20/20, but if you have access to the horse's entire history, you might have picked up on its affinity for GOOD tracks.

Richard

I was just practicing with what was available on YouTube. Overall, I did okay, but this race killed my horizontal bets. The track favored speed while the seal held, but it transitioned and the speed started falling apart.

I agree with you. I have seldom done well on off tracks. And the way this track transitioned was a good example of the risk of horizontal wagers on an off track.