Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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rdiam 08-28-2019 04:50 PM

DMR Full Card 8/28/19
 
DMR Full Card 8/28/19:

NOTE: This is my contender worksheet. As previously stated, I require 1-1 when betting 1 horse to win (if I can toss another going off at 3-1 or lower), or 5-2 when betting 2 horses to win, or 4-1 when betting 3 horses to win. I do not advocate betting horses without seeing their tote odds.

Similarly, when constructing horizontal tickets, I will go deeper in open races and less deep in more chalky races.

Finally, when constructing vertical tickets, I will also include contra-energy and higher class horses underneath (not necessarily listed here) per the 55% solution.

r1: 1-3-4, LS 2: likely to be won by top 2-3 favorites, Gutierrez needs to get the 1 to the lead and hold it if going to win, the rest come from off the pace

r2: 6-2-8-5: open race, chance for a price, Delgadillo needs to understand that he can control the pace ahead of the 6, the rest come from off the pace

r3: 9-4-2-6: open race, chance for a price, no one really wants the lead, 2 probably gets it by default

r4: 4-3-5, LS 6: open baby race, 6 of 10 are FTS

r5: 1-4-5: likely to be won by top 2-3 favorites, the 5 needs to wrest the lead from the 7 and the 6, with the 1 and 4 closing

r6: 2-7-5, LS 8: baby race likely to be won by top 2-3 favorites, 8 and 9 will battle for the early lead, the others come from off the pace

r7: 5-9-4, LS 7: look for 5 to get pounded by rebate syndicates, 9,5 and 4 will battle for the early lead, if they go too fast then 7 closes

r8: 12-9-10, LS 3: open race, 4 of 11 are FTS, chance for a price

Good luck

Richard

Lt1 08-28-2019 05:30 PM

Good luck Richard and thanks for posting
Tim

rdiam 08-28-2019 08:44 PM

Results:

8 Races

3 #1s: 4.50, 3.40, 5.60
2 #2s: 4.80, 16.00
2 #3s: 26.00, 8.60
1 complete miss

3 $1 ex: 6.40, 18.30, 9.10
1 $1 tri: 27.00

5 $1 dds: 6.00, 41.90, 133.00, 68.70, 10.50
4 $1 p3: 52.80, 221.40, 680.30, 136.20
1 $1 p4: 1875.70
1 $1 p5: 4120.10

Richard


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