DMR Full Card 7/24/19
 

DMR Full Card 7/24/19:

r1: 4-5-1, LS 4, chalk likely, look for rebate syndicates to pound the 4

r2: 2-1-7-3

r3: 4-3-1-5, LS 9

r4: 6-5-1, LS 7, chalk likely

r5: 2-7-5-4, LS 3

r6: 4-7-6, chalk likely

r7: 2-6-1-8

So, 3 races where chalk (winner paying less than $10) is likely, no reason to go deep on these if playing horizontals, look to hook up the chalk with longer shots if playing verticals.

Good luck.

Richard

Results:

7 races

3 #1s: 3.00, 4.20, 8.40
1 #2s: 3.40
1 #4s: 2.80

Missed: 8.80, 20.20

Not a stellar day.

Richard

57% top two, not disastrous.


Mitch44

Hello Richard

You did well considering it was an od card

In race 1,The top 2 turf sprinters horse 4 and 5 hooked up in what basically was a match race. you were dead on when you called the race as the 4 went off at .30/1

In race 4 the public let a Baffert /Garcia entry go off at 9/1

Race 6 was a 12-furlong distance, A distance not favorable to the Sartin methodology software (10 furlongs is the max)

Richard, I do take exception to your comment that "chalk" is any horse
paying less than $10,

Doc Sartin's minimum bet he wold except is a horse paying 2.5/1

Doc Sartin looked at any horse paying double digits as a threshold
of exceptional value, so much so that a place bet is called for in addition
to a win bet for horses that will pay over $10.00
Lastly when testing RDSS in its infancy. I along with Ted and Richie P
were given the assignment to send Doc reports and readouts of any horse that paid equal to and greater than 4/1

Bill V:

In "bookie" slang, "chalk" refers to favorites, as opposed to "dog", which refers to underdogs. Define it however you like. If you read my post, the mention of chalk was to indicate a race likely to be won by one of the top 2-3 favorites, and not worth going deep if you were betting either vertical or horizontal exotics. There was no mention of Sartin or his 5-2 minimum.

By the way, when you bet 2 horses at 5-2, you have to hit 57% just to break even! Betting 2 horses at 3-1 needs a hit rate of 50% just to break even...

There are very few who can bet 2 horses whose odds are greater than 2-1 and cash more than 50% of the time. Very few...

Richard

Hi Richard
 

Doc Sartin did not guide us to bet 2 horses at 5/2
His guidelines have always been to bet two horses.
Starting in what we now call "The Modern Sartin Methodology "
That is what is taught in follow up #70-88.
Doc's guidelines were to bet two horses to win.
The first bet is the horse in the top 3 BLBL or VDC that will pay a minimum of
5/2. The second win bet is on the horse in the top 3 and ties that will pay
the best odds, He also guides us to back up the longer odds horses with place and even show wagers.

As for as winning betting. Using these guidelines, I admire Richard (Rmath)
Ted Mitch and Tim (LT1) FTL and myself who all have over 55 % winners
and even into the '60s winning percentages.
Betting 2 horse to win.
and not betting only 5/2 horses.

Good chat
Good Skill