when the match up fails
 

in reviewing races that did not pan out, particularly match up wise, there is a recurring scheme that might explain things. Inherent to my understading of the match up is that one compares all horses to a similar yardstick: the projected pace of today's contest. But what about those horses that have NEVER faced the proposed match up today?

Case in point is the sixth race today at Woodbine

going to the past performances, this is a commonality of these situations, this one is a layoff that, given the pace to which it ran, has done well in all outings. On visual ESP evaluation, this one appears never to have been tested much and has had a year to develope, comes back with a top rider and trainer.

putting EVERY line into the possibles for today, it does not match up well.

even on incremental deceleration, it does not fair well.

the problem here seems to be that this one has NEVER been tested and has matured...be on the lookout for this situation: a competitive horse on ESP visual evaluation that has never been pushed to the pace pressures today's match up will require, but has potential.

after the early filter
 

going back to the match up and using an early filter (eliminating all the higher of the second call lines) gets a better result, but still not a definitive one.

Ive had this happen many a time here also, usually races that are NW@L types with one or more lighty raced horses, I end up passing many of these, the matchup concept seems to work best with horses that have had at least 8 races and more, good post:)

Thanks
 

Thanks for the example

Now let's do the race using ORIGINAL lines the way it is SUPPOSED to be done please.

here are the pp's for ALL the horses and the ones with the lines marked are the fastest horses in the race

no chicanery here baby. WATCH

pay attention to ONLY the original lines marked on the lower half of the screen please

horse # 1

horse 2