28 July 2018 SAR (Saturday)
 

Ok, pulled in a data file for this track and date, as it was the furthest ahead I could find for Saratoga. 11 races, 4 of them are Stakes. I'm going to try to focus on a MSW, a Claim, an ALW, and a Stakes. Here's the card:

1) 5.5f TURF MSW85k 2yo - 14 entries

2) 1-1/16m InnerTURF Clm25000 3up - 11 entries

3) 1-1/8m MC40000 3&up - 9 entries

4) 6f [S](F)Alw77000b 3&up - 10 entries

5) 6f MSW85k 2yo - 1 entries

6) 1m InnerTURF Alw87000b 3&up 14 entries

7) 6.5f Stakes 3yo - 7 entries
Amstrdam-G3 / Amsterdam S-G3 / purse 200k

8) 8f Stakes 3&up - 7 entries
AGVndbH-G1 / Alfred C. Vanderbilt - G1 / purse 350k

9) 1-3/8m InnerTURF Stakes 4&up - 9 entries
BwlnGrn-G2 / Bowling Green S-G2 / purse 250k

10) 1-1/8m Stakes 3yo - 5 entries
JimDandy-G2 / purse 600k

11) 1-1/8m TURF (F)OC80000b 3yo - 14 entries


Ooops, have to get ready for work. Will continue later. :)

Race 5 has 11 (eleven) entries. My bad :)

Jim Dandy
 

The feature Jim Dandy is only a five horse field , There might be a price , Lets see the tote board.

Hey, when you guys start to analyze a race card, what do you prefer? Straight through from first to last? Skip around based on easiest / hardest, largest / smallest, some other criteria?

one race at a time
 

Hello

I take them as they come up

Here is an example - So far today

Race 3 Saratoga - No Bet

Race 5 Newbury England - lost

Race 4 Delaware - No Bet

Race 5 Delaware - Won ( DH)

Race 7 Laurel No Bet

Race 6 Saratoga No Bet

I look at races that are coming up next on the tote feeds

Usually, it's bouncing between Saratoga, Del Mar, Laurel Parx Delaware

Wow Bill. How much time do you take to analyze a race and identify your contender(s)?

Not much
 

Hello

Well

Not much time at all, However that comes from many years of practice.
My work is mostly with Phase 1 now. For most of my 20 years experience
I used the best of the last three speed ratings, I picked a line for every horse
in every race, I eliminated down to no more than 5 contenders, then bet my two choices of the top 3 BLBL, then VDC.

I never really looked that close to the other screens except for maybe the Early/Late (TPR) screen and the segments screen.
It used to take me about 15 to 20 minutes per race.

Once I caught on and migrated back to the basics and with the guidance of FTL's guidelines. Contender and line selection time was reduced.

I quickly eliminate almost all the horses from win contention. You will probably never see me post a longshot anymore or a big exacta or other horizontal bets because I usually eliminate most longer odds horses.

I am much more interested in the pools and current form
these days, I play for a very high win percentage and bet much more per race to get my rebates

I would say basically I can do a race and have total confidence to make a bigger bet after about 7 minutes.

I consider my self very well versed with phase 1. I can see form cycles and the match up just with the EP -LP relationships It really helps using + 0 and (0) lines -- Colored coded in RDSS :)

Experience of 20 years, and lots more common sense and understanding handicapping way more than my early years has cut down the workload.

But I have never stopped practicing

Good Skill
to you

Hey, Bill, do you have a copy of Recreational Handicapping by James Quinn? It has an interesting chapter on betting.

I have certain spot plays I look for at a price.
I am selective as to which races I will play.
If the race matches my criteria, I will bet it.
It doesn't matter to me what type of race it is.

Betting Mantra
 

Hi

I probably read or had the book at one time, During one of my first meetings with Doc. I was thinking I would impress him and rattle off all the handicapping books I owned. His reply to my list? 3 words = Throw Them Away.
Handicapping books are a good tool but Doc said they generally were too mainstream,

He published this in follow up #83 Its been my basic approach ever since

Attachment 46643


My day yesterday Profit was small but I am just biding my time

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