Know where your tracks are and don't forget to check the weather forecast!
 

Well, today was a learning experience. Without RDSS, I am currently using the BRISnet free software and data files. It was a big help in filtering for pace lines and identifying running styles. But I had to input data to my Excel template and ran out of time analyzing the day's card.

I got two races done with the decision model and three were still on paper notes. So i was a little hasty when i placed my bets today before work.

Once at work I checked nyrabets.com. Found two of my contenders were scratched. Had to cancel those bets and change things up. Discovered this track did not have a DRF Quick sheet to buy. Watched the first race and was stoked when my choice won. And that was a maiden claiming. My choice in the second race came in third.

Then I noticed the image quality in the videos was deteriorating. Was that bad reception? No, much to my horror, it was rain. And not a little. It was pouring.

Frankly, i should have canceled the rest of my bets and walked away. My contender in the third race won. But in races 4 and 5 they were both near last in the field.

So then, stupid me, I finally check the weather. Gulfstream Park was enjoying 83 degrees, 91% humidity, and rain.

When I was in the army training in Georgia , this Calif girl learned that outdoor work ceased when the humidity was high, even when the temp was only 75 deg. And my one visit to Disney World that Sept was memorable more for the twice annual flight of the lovebugs coating every vehicle and outdoor surface, like box meals.

It wasn't a total loss. Three of my five contenders finished in the money and I recooped half of what I spent. More I proved to myself that The Method did work, given the time and software to shorten prep time.

I am working on a new Excel template that will crunch up to the decision model. But it is a little time consuming at this stage, as I am converting horizontal data to vertical data. Once complete it will convert an entire day of races at one track into data I can then customize minimally before commencing analysis.

I had hoped to jump on Saratoga tomorrow but it is more important that I finish this template. Also need to revise my checklist to include checking the weather before I bet, checking scratches early, and avoiding tracks that the DRF doesn't fully cover.

Heavy sigh. Make no mistake, I am enjoying this learning experience. It's challenging, yes, but very satisfying when one's analysis hits the mark. I nailed 3 of 5 today. Yippee!

good
 

That is a nice day recap/story/lesson

I like your dedication to finish your excel project before you start betting
and using your records

I'm wishing you good skill

Bill

3 out of 5 is not bad at all !
My process for race selection always involves a look at the weather forecast. Then at race time, I make sure nothing has changed and it's not raining, or something else, (like an inordinate number of scratches). has occurred.

Be sure you back up all your hard work in multiple ways. When I was constructing the parts of my Excel tools, it took many many hours. Some of the programming I don't even remember how I did it, (the automated regression tools .. I'd have to look it up). But now they're all automated, and update automatically, it's great to have everything working, and just enjoy concentrating on the race, and not worry about how the tools are working.

So what would you consider an "inordinate" number of scratches? Today GP had scratches in every race, two in one of my five, four in another. Two I was convinced were good contenders were also scratched. Four in one race seemed odd to me but I didn't know what to make of it.

Cheer Hardy as Im not sure of your peace lines
 

For sure the record you keep wii tell you how you are doing and your plays meet what you want to be paid

The template I'm working on provides data for each horse on one line. For instance, each of the 10 pacelines in the pp for a horse is broken up in chunks. Race date may be in columns a thru j on row 1. Then another detail in k thru t. And so on. I want the data displayed as 10 rows for horse 1, then the next 10 rows for horse 2 and so on. Once I pull in the raw data for a new card I will use the generator to quickly customize the whole card to my specifications.

That will narrow down the pacelines. I will choose a paceline for each horse, locate it in the template and delete the other 9 lines for each horse. Now I have one line per each horse in the race, fully crunched, ending with all my pace figures and columns ready for my decision rankings. Separately I'll list the jockeys and look them up, to determine who is switching to a better or lesser jockey.

I use the DRF Quick sheet not for the ML but for distance specialists, horses for courses, jockey/trainer alerts, recent races, hot jockeys and trainers, etc. I look at the odds last. They will decide IF I bet and how but that is last.

That's my current plan of action. I am, of course, making note of class changes, surface and distance changes, tandems, etc. Lots to look for and think about.

Suggestions are welcome.

Well in your example I would have ignored the entire card if it was raining there. If it's not raining, and the reason is not obvious to me for the scratches, (I think this happened last weekend, 4-5 horse were scratched in a race, leaving about 5 or 6, I think), I pass, and look for races with a minimum of 8 runners. If I've prepared the race, and I'm left with 7, I might use it. Otherwise, I move on to something else. There is value in lots of places. At Woodbine last Saturday, on of my choices went off at 7/1 ... and it was obviously one of the two best horses in the race.