Place
 

This is a message request in my PM folder this morning .

"I have noticed that in posts featuring races you say you have only a place wager. Could you please post the criteria you use for making that decision. Specifically when a place bet is preferable to a win bet and/or when a wp bet is preferred.

Thanks for your time and for all your posts. They have been very helpful.

TL"

Hello TL

This is my outline to my recent success "place betting"

This is very IMPORTANT " I go into each race looking for a winning horse .

I am not looking for a place horse, I'm looking for the most likely winner
but only betting that horse to PLACE

Criteria- Any race, any track, any distance , or surface
Field size does not matter, although place prices are better with big fields.

Program requirements Rdss with live tote
The ability to wait till the very last moment before the bell to
place bet . I use Xbselect or Twinspires With lots of practice and focus I can make my bet within seconds of the lockout.

Okay let me walk through a live race

This is race 2 today Sunday June 17th from Belmont.

HAPPY FATHERS DAY

First thing is I use Phase 1 for contenders and pacelines

Here is what I have for race 2

I have moved horses 4 and 1 to secondary contenders.
I move every horse who is over 20/1 ML or running at a non comparable
distance structure, or who is not one of the top 3 EPR or LPR or Top 5
TPR horses or any horse that is more than 5 points below the top rated TPR horse .

Using these basic Phase 1 requirements, I get the winner in the group
over 92% In all races - I have 2300+ races in my database

Attachment 46304

Continued next post .

Rx 2 pw%
 

Now I go to the RX screen. I use RX 2 for now.

My record show that the winner comes from one of the top 4 RX2 horses
over 90%. In addition I only use horses that fit the basic Phase 1 quidelines
I outlined in the previous post, So the probability that the winner is one of the top 4 RX horses is not only extremely high since now I am looking for the winner, but I probablby find a horse who should win but only places a
very high percentage.

Back to the steps

So from this point on I only will look at the TOP 4
RX2 horses . Here that would be horse 6, 7, 5, 3,

Attachment 46305

I will wait till the second race tote odds are available
and then explain the nest steps

Best Skill

Rdss Tote
 

Here is the RX 2 screen with the live tote

This screen shot is at like 26 minutes to post.
But lets pretend for now this was at 0 minutes to post.

Who is my bet?

I look for these factors.

1. One of the top 4 RX2 ( or RX3 ) if available.
2. I look at the horse with the lowest percentage on the PW%readout.
3.This PW horse must be bet below it morning line.

In this race right now that would be horse 7.

So at the last possible second I would bet $10 minimum on the 7 to PLACE

I will post another shot in a few minutes and reevaluate

Attachment 46306

Why
 

you might be asking why

Well I wont beat around the hedge , I AM BROKE

I lost my whole bank roll to taking out money for bills but also
trying to do too much while not at even 50% mentally stable

My bank roll is down to $300 TOTAL Attachment 46307

I have to build it back up very conservatively, I am on a strict
fixed income now, There is no room to "play"

I need a very high win percentage way to grind out a profit

I have been doing well as my chart shows
I stared with $200 and now I am over $300

Just from Place betting using this method

Attachment 46308

2 minutes
 

They are getting close to the gate

It still is horse 7

Attachment 46309

There off
 

I hit the bet at the last posssible minute it turned out
to be horse 6

good PW and bet under ML

Attachment 46310

well that did not work out Final Look
 

This time I lost

Its reality. Nothing works all the time but
I am still in the black overall
I hope you got something out of my lesson


Bless
Bill

Attachment 46311

I was following along Bill and found it interesting. Just another race and no one race makes a loser or a winner, its how you do overall and your concept is showing 100% profit. I also admire that you post before the race and not after the fact.
Mitch44

Thank you very much for the post. Very informative and helpful, as usual. I echo Mith44's admiration.

and the book "Overlay,Overlay" by bill heller