Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Travers Stakes

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- Races of Interest (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=76)

- - Travers Stakes - 2017 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11284)

Travers Stakes - 2017

Seems like a very contentious race. On the other hand, if we can eliminate a few of the Morning Line horses from the Win, our profit potential increases!

Attachment 44066

I want to wait until tomorrow to reassess this Rx line, when the ProfitLine ranks will be available (for inclusion in the Rx3 line score). Right now however, Rx2 (which uses CR+ enhanced Class rating as the Power Number in the Rx line score), eliminates from Top 4 and ties two of the Morning Line Favourites - always a good thing!

No matter which paceline you use for any of the demoted Secondary horses (i.e. not for Win), they rank no better than 6th.

The ranks of the Primary horses may jump around a bit when tomorrow's ProfitLine is available for this Travers Day card, but since a few people have asked - here's what comes up so far. I will be zeroing in more particularly with the tote analysis as the race approaches.

Still, a very contentious race!

Attachment 44075

.

Thank You, Ted for posting the Travers

Here is my first look.
Look at those Late Pace Ratings !!!!
so wild numbers for sure :)

I will update if needed as the day goes

Good Skill
Bill (BVD)

Attachment 44074

After my first pass thru I have 6-3-5-1-10-7 as my contenders.
Tim

Contenders 1,3,4,7

3,1
Pook

What a fantastic field! Whose going to take the lead and what kind of early pace are they going to carve out? Is someone going to wire the field? The obvious horse who has pressed and led early is #7 Always Dreaming. He got the lead in the recent Jim Dandy at 9f at today's track only to fade late. But this was his first race in 70 days and Pletcher probably didn't have him cranked up all the way. There appears to be 3 horses that will press this leader: #3 West Coast, #10 Irap and #12 Fayeq. My feeling is that the winner will come from this group.

1-3-5-6-9

ex 3/6/9-1/3/5/6/9

GL!

All three triple crown winners in same race

It has been a while since we had a championship race where all the winners of the Triple Crown races are in the same race. Fantastic Field!!!

Always Dreaming - Kentucky Derby Winner
Cloud Computing - Preakness Stakes Winner
Tapwrit- Belmont Stakes Winner

Always Dreaming comes off a clunker in his last race.. Today's race seems like a race where Pletcher will send this one early to prep for the BC Classic at Del Mar. I don't believe Always Dreaming was in top form when Cloud Computing won the Preakness.
Tapwrit just won the marathon -Belmont Stakes- new form cycle in today's race

I'm more interested in Omar's pick from this year's Kentucky Derby- McCraken. This horse had me puzzled after the running of the Kentucky Derby as did Tapwrit. Later I see that Pletcher saved Tapwrit for the Belmont stakes.

McCraken ran sustained two races back and race early when he lost to Girvin in the last race. IMHO, McCraken is primed for today's race- the Travers Stakes.

Good Skills

Attachment 44085

I went with Girvin, Mccraken Always Dreaming.

I believe that the 3YO picture will be further muddied after today. Lots of price potential in this race. Good luck!

Code:

                SAR0826 11 10.0 D G1 3   $1,250,000 5:44PM



                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)



HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE



    4   9 MCCRA1    95    5  23.0     EVEN   MTH 9.0D 12/1   27   3



    2   4 TAPWR4    92    8  17.3      5-2   TAM 8.5D  7/2   77   3



    1   3 WEST 2    92    8  16.5      3-1   BEL 8.5D  4/1   42   3



    3   7 ALWAY4    91    7  15.5   *  7-2   GP  9.0D  6/1   28   3



    6  11 GUNNE1    83    7  15.5   *  7-2   GP  8.5D 20/1   20   3



    5  10 IRAP 1    90    7  13.3      4-1   IND 8.5D  8/1   42   3







                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS

                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │

                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│

┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│

│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│

├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤

│1│ 3 WEST 2  │ 92│ 8│2│4│25│3│15│3││1│6│6││S/P│ 1.3││1│6│2│6│6│3│1│3│1│4│2│5│

│2│ 4 TAPWR4  │ 92│ 8│3│2│24│2│14│2││2│2│5││PRE│    ││2│5│3│3│4│3│4│2│4│3│3│2│

│3│ 7 ALWAY4  │ 91│ 7│6│3│26│4│15│3││4│3│4││SUS│ 2.4││4│4│4│5│5│2│2│4│2│2│4│3│

│4│ 9 MCCRA1  │ 95│ 5│1│1│13│1│ 7│1││3│1│1││SUS│ 0.7││3│2│1│1│2│1│3│1│3│1│1│1│

│5│10 IRAP 1  │ 90│ 7│4│5│27│5│24│4││5│4│3││SUS│ 3.2││5│3│5│4│3│2│5│5│5│5│5│4│

│6│11 GUNNE1  │ 83│ 7│5│6│26│4│30│5││6│5│2││LAT│ 7.0││6│1│6│2│1│4│6│6│6│6│6│6│

└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘