Woodbine Oaks
 

Woodbine Oaks

They’re calling for a heatwave on Sunday, and that means the track should slow down slightly.

I expect a moderate pace of 24 – 48 in the first two splits from the front runners 1-7-9. There should be pressure up front from a number of horses, but i’m having my doubts about a front runner walking away with this, and i believe this sets up nicely for a closer.

The three horses that have caught my attention are the 4 – 10 – 11. The 4 is my top pick in the race, and comes with some value at 20/1. All three of these filly’s are set to hit a peak effort, they are the only ones in the field that haven’t shown us an improvement over last season’s ceiling.

A contentious and chaotic race, and an opportunity for some value.

Early – 1-7-9

Form – 4-10-11-1

Barn – 4-5-10

8.5F Final Time – 2-4-9-12

Stakes Winner – 1-4-9-11-12

Recency – 4-5-6-7-8-9-12

Total Energy – 9 / 2-4-8-10-12

Clocker – 1-3-4-5-6-7-10-11-12

Another 3 yr. old race with many unknown factors. I usually don’t play 3 yr. olds until the middle of August or so, until than their like playing maiden races. With that said this race will be a small action bet and I looked at this a little more that the Belmont. Still a race as you can make a case for several in here.
# 1 is a NTL horse that I believe won’t get it and if she does somewhere she’ll get passed and fold. The # 5 can run her into defeat. Threw it out as a non-contender.
# 5 This horse won’t come up in any RDSS reading because of such a poor 3rd FR. That bad 3rd FR destroys many readouts such as HE, FX, FW, Tot. Energy, V/DC etc. The question becomes did he only do what he had to in order to win or was he all out? Only the jock and trainer knows. At a 3-1 M/L he’s not worth the risk to find out and even if he wasn’t all out he has to go further today. One plus is he can rate, he be a keeper for exotics bet which in this race is even more risky. Tossed if he beats me he’ll have to prove it.
# 7 another unknown. Won last and only two starts and 2nd Lasix, could be anything at 20-1 M/l which will probably go up if you like him
# 11 most likely bled in last and gets Lasix today, great work out. Beat a good field in next to last. Good odds for the risk at 12-1 ML. An unknown factor.
# 12 last was best and had trouble, good trainer and sharp work out. Only 2 starts this year and improved. Another unknown factor.
Contenders are: # 9 L1, # 2 L 1, # 8 L 1, # 4 L 3, # 12 L 1 The # 4 is as good as the #2 but is 20-1 verses 4.5 odds. Also # 2 figures to be bet down.
# 9 figures to get better as distance increases and has the future to be a champion. Runs like
Order 9-8-4-2-12. The bet: $6 # 9, $ 3 # 8, $2 #’s 4, 11, 7 In $15

Mitch44

Ellan Vannin
 

After a hot, muggy and incredible day at the Oaks, I am finally getting back to reality. Our girl ran great, as the winner is a an actual BEAST, and will be 8-5 in the Plate.

We are not sure why the she never changed leads heading home. Onwards and Upwards, and we will be heading to the turf for our next start.

PS. She didn't bleed last race, and never has. We added Lasix as we were hoping it would give her a boost.

PPS. If I have a nice horse ever again; I will send her south, as all horses in front of us were wintered in Florida and in better shape.

Happy Punting,
Jon

With all 3yr. old its a matter of figuring out their best Distance and surface. The weather may have effected her for sure.
She is a good one and I wish you the very best going forward. BTW great photo.
Mitch44

onward
 

Not a bad effort Jon. Moved up to be less than 3 (2)bl at the stretch.

Good luck/skill moving on,

Nice picture!

Attachment 43562

A Large Thanks
 

Bill V & Mitch44,

Thanks for the kind words gentlemen.
Happy Punting!

Jon