PRX 7th - 4/11/17
 

Horses 1, 2 and 3
 

#1
Attachment 43222

#2
Attachment 43223

#3
Attachment 43224

Horses 4, 5 and 6
 

#4
Attachment 43225

#5
Attachment 43226

#6
Attachment 43227

Horses 7, 8 and 9
 

#7
Attachment 43228

#8
Attachment 43229

#9
Attachment 43230

My look
 

Top 5 TPR last line ( step1 0
4,7,3,5,1
Fulcrum POR EPR 93.5 (horse 7)

Notes

Horse 1 , House Of Friends .Sustained Line 2 is a CL7500N2-L win line
The horse was claimed in that race, Line 1 was a 0 races against allowance
horses and first race after a 6 week layoff, Will need a little better EPR
with a today's 93.5 fulcrum Line 3 is 100 days ago so that is a issue

Horse 2 Moneyman. .Sustained. Line 1 "0" is against CL20N3-L and at 7 furlongs
Line 2 is a + paceline but against a slow DTV . current form is okay, He come right back in 9 days

Horse 3. More Data EP ( when in form) Line 1 is a win line @ CL7500N2-L
moves up to CL12.5 Looks to be hjust behind the the fulcrum

Horse 4. The Schwarm. EarlyPresser Has been Routing at Aqu inner
Line 1 is a (+) after a layoff I will rate of line 1 and see how the match up of the LPRs
stack up .

Horse 5 Run Dixie Run, Presser . Another recent router looking at the fucrum
I will not give this one a line

Horse 6 Smart and Tough. Early Been off for 142 days Form is unknown
I only have 1 other layoff line to rate ( line 9) but that was a slow pace turf line

Horse 7 Windcries Early , Fulcrum horse I see no reason to expect anything different than what it did in its win in this line?
This is only a 3 year old .He could bounce . Line 1 is against CL7500N2-L

Horse 8 Bestbandever Sustained Line 1 is a 2 move (+) but the TPR and LPR
are weak Nothing else to se here

Horse 9. Portent Early Popular horse has been claimed in last two races
The best + line in that form cycle is race 3 but early sticks and falling total energy
have me worried

Lets see how the 4 is bet

I probably will pass this one

Attachment 43231

A brain teaser for sure. As Jeebs would say a slobber-knocker or in other words a real slobber-fest. ha ha ha
Mitch44

Another playable race.
Pacelines: Default setting
7-3-4 are my win contenders in order.
will pass if the 7 goes off at less than 5/2; otherwise I would bet the two that are the best prices.
In races like this when I get it down to three main contenders I usually end up passing because of the odds being to low to make make a decent profit.
I prefer races where I get two main contenders with decent odds.
Rmath

Pacelines
 

#1 - Line 2/Sustained Presser. I excused Line 1 due to the intense class demands (TE PoR) it faced last time out. Line 2 is a + win at the $7.5k n2L level. This stands to reason that the $12.5k will be an easier spotting.

#2 - Line 2/Sustained. Line 1 was a 0 race vs. a tougher TE PoR ($20k n3L). I found no reason not to use its + race from the 2nd line in today's class.

#3 - Line 6/Early. Even though Line 1 is a + win line in the $7.5k n2L condition, it had a weak perceptor rank. I used the + line to open the window to choose the top perceptor ranked Line 6. Why is this important? Because this is an early runner who shows an ability to pass horses or sit off the pace. 1st off the claim this afternoon.

#4 - Line 8/Early Presser. Horse has a variety of +/(+) outings going long. I excused its last comparable line (Line 4) due to the extreme TE PoR. I admittedly hate going down towards the bottom of the PPs to find a usable line, but its run style and energy distribution would seem to indicate that this particular line best reflects its ability.

#5 - Line 5/Sustained Presser. Line 5 is its most recent comparable line. While its perceptor is slightly worse than Line 7, it has a higher TPR and the horse was up close.

#6 - No Line/Questionable sprint back form. Its sprint races are practically all(+) pop and stop affairs. Tough read for me off a November layoff. I would let this one beat me.

#7 - Line 1/Early. Without question, this is the best line to use. Encouraging is the quick turnaround and rise to $12.5k off the claim.

#8 - Line 1/Sustained. Appears to be a Non-contender here. Poor sprint record.

#9 - Line 3/Early. A pair of (+) races followed by the near miss. Feast or famine E type.

This race is a "Pook Special" IMO - Early or Fold?

Velocity/RS analysis
 

Attachment 43235

Attachment 43236

#7 and #9 are virtually matching early runners based on my line selections. The #3 should be sitting right off, while #4 may struggle to stick close to the pace in this match-up. #3 shows a massive middle move from F1 to F2, passing horses between calls. None of the Sustained/Sustained Presser style runners can seemingly string together strong 2nd and 3rd fractions, which makes me leery of them.