Win Payout Frequency Graph
 

This is a frequency distribution graph for Win Payouts based on my modest dirt sprint database (171 races). For The Lead recommends that you dismiss all horses with M/L Odds of 20-1 or greater. That's good guidance. And as you can see from the graph, there aren't many winners beyond 10-1 P/T Odds. So anytime you bag one in that territory, take pride. It's no mean accomplishment.

http://i66.tinypic.com/11ah380.jpg

Hi Mick
 

May I ask a question,
How were the 171 races compiled,

Were these your most recent 171 races? Are these races that you handicapped before the results were known ? What percentage of these 171 race did you actually place a bet ?

Did you use a predetermined pace line / contender selection method ?

There probably is a second part to my question
Look forearm to your reply
Good Skill
Bill

Hi, Bill.

These are recent dirt sprints (all 2017) from the tracks I routinely play, e.g. Parx, MVR, OP. There was really no handicapping involved for purposes of my statistics. I used the "export" function in RDSS, pasted the winners' lines into a modified version of the MasterTemplate3, added a few extra values, and then imported the records into Access. How many did I bet? Maybe 20%. I didn't keep track but I usually bet maybe 2 races per card. And with very few exceptions, I used the default paceline.

Thank You
 

Thank you Mick

I'm doing my own research, Not so much in how often things happen
withing a test cycle , but rather the way people record the data,

I appreciate your reply and interesting work

Good Skill
Bill

One other point about the graph, if I had broken the ranges down further, e.g. 2-1 and 5-2, 3-1 and 7-2, 4-1 and 9-2, the three tall sticks would have been shorter, but I think they would have still been the tallest six.

(Oops. Our messages crossed in cyberspace. And that's not what you're interested in. (-: )

With more granularity, our frequency distribution looks like this:

http://i63.tinypic.com/28u4oxu.jpg

Over 20/1 can make very good Place and Show bets. I generally toss them out of the mix for win but I do look at them to place or Show. I hit one the other day that payed me 17.00 for show, the horse was 62/1 at post. This is, of course, rare, but I have hit several 20+/1 horses that paid very well in the lesser straight bets. These horses will have corollaries that support a wager so I give each horse a line and then keep an eye on them at post time.

20
 

Good post Fairchild ,

Along with place and show, sometimes I can add a 20/1 in one leg of my pick 4
Often in one of the legs I can go 5 horses deep, in these races I might add it as its just a .50 cent unit or $1.

Higher priced winners
 

Mitch , in looking over your graph I see that 55/171 winners (32%) paid 12.00 and up.
I have kept track of the 12.00 and up winners at OP this year.
In 320 races there has been 123 wins. this is 38% of all the playable races.
82 of the 123 were actually in my final contenders.
rmath

Rich,

That's a great point. We always focus on post-time favourites (Ted's spelling) winning one third of the races. Well, horses paying $12+ (5-1 and greater) win a third of the races, too. At least they did in my dirt claimer database. And the percentage is even higher with your statistics. Also impressed that you identified them as contenders two thirds of the time. That's some good handicapping. Thanks for your insight.