Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Hit a good one today. (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10505)

Mitch44 07-01-2016 06:08 PM
Hit a good one today.
 
I was going to Tampa Bay today because I had a ticket I needed to cash for $66 and change from back in March when I bet race #13 and left after the bigger races.

It was an ugly card today and one which I would have passed otherwise. My brother backed out of going because he likes good horses and follows bloodlines. Therefore I just stayed home and bet it on my Twinspires account.

I threw my normal techniques out and looked for longshots as these races were all cheap Md. Clm. , MSW and mostly turf. Even the two dirt races were clm. 10,000 NW 2 ,3 etc. They ran at Tampa the last two days to qualify for their simulcasting license for the rest of the year.

I did do all the races in RDSS to look for gaps and horses I could key with my longshot picks. Played them for win, hooked them up for DD and played some EX. It ended up working out great as you can see below:

Hit a nice one in the 2nd at Tampa Bay: # 3 paid $ 104.40, also had the DD 1 & 2 race and 2nd & 3rd race.


COMPLETED: 2e1b5-2bcf5 TAM #2 $2 Double 3, 8, WT, 2, 3, 6 none $12.00 $321.00 + $309.00 Note: the favorite won the 2nd leg here of the DD and it still paid good.

COMPLETED: 5f249-a510b TAM #2 $5 Win 3, 8 none $10.00 $261.00 + $251.00

COMPLETED: cb658-3811a TAM #1 $1 Double 5, 6, WT, 3, 8 none $4.00 $144.60 + $140.60

The lesson to take away here is once you make a decision stick to it regardless of odds. Also do a complete analysis of each horse. Normally I do a complete analysis of my contenders and any horse that won its last race. In these cheap races it pays to do an analysis of every horse in the race, especially if your playing a DD, P-3 etc.

Tracks somehow have a way of sandwiching these type races in between other good races all the time. Also because these aren't going to win on a high percentage you need to lower your bets and outlay, plus the payoffs are greater so you can get a lot for little.

Good luck,
Mitch44

Bill V. 07-02-2016 01:11 PM
Nice for sure
 
Wow Mitch

Very good news from you !

I worked the race after I saw your post, Unfortunately,
I would have needed a little more supporting readouts for #3

Top 5 after hides but I would have missed, Happy for you though

GS
Bill

my readouts ..

My contenders lines

Code:
            TAM0701 2 8.0 T CL 3+  $13,200 CP=$10,000 12:55PM
                                PACELINE DATA
# PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC  BL1  BL2  BLS  BLF  SR    TRKDISTS

1  2 BO'S 5    47.2 112.0 137.2 10.70  4.70  2.10  3.00  76    TAM 8.0T
2  3 TOCO 5    48.4 112.8 138.0  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.50  75    DEL 8.0T
3  4 ROYAL1    47.5 112.3 137.6  3.00  2.10  2.00  0.50  76    TAM 8.0T
4  5 STEP 3    47.2 111.7 137.6  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  77    TAM 8.0T
5  6 REGAL2    49.5 112.7 137.1  3.50  2.70  2.10  1.10  78    GP  8.0T
6  8 IMPER3    47.0 111.8 137.1  4.70  2.60  4.50  3.00  76    TAM 8.0T
Validator

Code:
                              │          PRIMARY FACTORS          │  │SUPP│
┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┐  ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬─┤  ├──┬─┤
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│ Total R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│ HE│ FW│ FX│  │LS│R│  │LS│R│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│1│ 2 BO'S 5  │ 76│160.96-3│  │  4│  2│  3│  2│  2│  2│  5│  │20│3│  │16│4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│2│ 3 TOCO 5  │ 75│160.95-4│  │  3│  4│  4│  4│  4│  5│  4│  │28│5│  │24│5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│3│ 4 ROYAL1  │ 76│160.87-5│  │  2│  3│  2│  5│  3│  3│  1│  │19│2│  │13│2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│4│ 6 REGAL2  │ 78│164.16-1│  │  5│  1│  1│  1│  1│  1│  3│  │13│1│  │ 7│1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│5│ 8 IMPER3  │ 76│161.05-2│  │  1│  5│  2│  3│  5│  4│  2│  │22│4│  │15│3│
└─┴───────────┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴─┘  └──┴─┘
IMG


Code:
            TAM0701 2 8.0 T CL 3+  $13,200 CP=$10,000 12:55PM

                      INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│        1F        │        2F          │    3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  2 BO'S 5│      4->          │            2->    │              2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  3 TOCO 5│          3->      │        3->        │ 5->                  │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  4 ROYAL1│              2->  │ 5->                │              2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  6 REGAL2│  5->              │                  1->│                  1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  8 IMPER3│                1->│    4->            │      4->            │
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘
PP's for winner

Code:
            TAM0701 2 8.0 T CL 3+  $13,200 CP=$10,000 12:55PM              3/8
JOCK/TRAIN      R  W  P  S  W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS  W%      EPS  R
SULLIVAN, CARS  17  2  0  2  12 LIFE  20  2  1  1    23,004  10    1,150  7
WETHERINGTON,  10  0  0  1    0 CURR  1  0  0  0        0    0        0
                                    PAST  12  0  1  1    6,180    0      515  7


ML=20/1                            T-RT  4  0  1  0    3,852    0      963  5
  3 TOCO BOY                AGE=6  OFF-T  1  0  0  0
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC  BL1  BL2  BLS  BLF  SR  ESP    L PI
1  179LRL 5FT 8.0D  46.6 112.7 138.7 19.80 18.20 25.10 31.10  41          1
2  223LRL 3GD 5.5Tp 47.3 113.8 139.9 11.40 15.70 17.10 15.30  50          2
3  251LRL 6FM 9.0T  49.8 114.6 139.0  1.60  1.00  6.20  6.10  64          3
4  279DEL 7FM 8.0T  47.5 112.2 136.6  0.00  2.10 12.10 12.20  70          4
5[ 319DEL 4FM 8.0T  48.4 112.8 138.0  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.50  75          5    ]
6  326DEL 1FT 8.3D  47.1 113.0 139.7  1.50  7.50 18.10 25.00  41          6
7  331DEL 2FM 8.3T  48.9 112.9 139.4  4.50  3.30  9.60  8.80  59          7
8  346DEL 2FM 5.0Tp 47.1 112.9 138.2 13.20 13.80 14.20 11.80  62          8
9  361DEL 1FT 8.3D  46.4 111.5 136.8  6.50 10.50 16.00 25.30  56          9
A  389DEL 9FT 8.0D  48.5 113.2 138.2  1.20  2.60  7.60 12.50  62          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE          PU/CP JOCKEY        PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 CL-4+C        10,000 RENGIFO, KEIBE  6  9 10  97.00  OUTRUN
2 CL-3+          7,500 MEJIAS, LARRY  6  7 12  60.00  OUTRUN
3 SO-3+C        16,000 THORPE, DARIUS  8  8 11  96.50  POOR ST,STDY 7/8,4W MV
4 SO-3+        16,000 CAMPBELL, JANE  1  8  8  13.20  LED TO FAR TURN, TIRED
5[CL-3+NW3      17,500 CAMPBELL, JANE  4  2  7  87.40  PACE, RESISTED GAMELY  ]
6 CL-3+NW3      6,250 CAMPBELL, JANE  5  6  6  12.50  PROMPTED PACE, TIRED
7 CL-3+NW3      17,500 COA, KEIBER    3  6  8  94.20  LACKED A RALLY
8 CL-3+NW3      17,500 COA, KEIBER    3  8 10  62.10  NO FACTOR
9 SA-3+C        5,000 TOLEDO, JEVIAN  3  5  6  44.00  SHOWED LITTLE
A CL-3+NW3      5,000 REMEDIO, MARIA  7  5  8  32.20  FLATTENED OUT
                                  WORK OUTS
 4D(FT)OWT: 51.0Bg 4D(FT)OWT: 52.0B  4D(FT)OWT: 52.0B  5D(FT)OWT:105.2B
 4D(FT)OWT: 50.2B  4F(FT)DEL: 51.2B  5D(FT)DEL:102.4B  4D(FT)DEL: 48.8B
                                  FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS    5  89  103  132  142  194  262  298  397  404  418  448
RACES      179  223  251  279  319  326  331  346  361  389  443  462
                                INSTRUCTIONS

Bill V. 07-02-2016 01:13 PM
chart
 
1 Attachment(s)
51/1

Attachment 40868

Mitch44 07-02-2016 11:01 PM
The 3 dropped in class and had a new trainer. I figured him to improve and in an ugly race was worth a bet. First time at this class. Thanks Bill. I always use Bris PP with RDSS and I get more data, especially trainers and comments. I'm basically doing some hides of ugly horses.
Mitch44

delayjf 07-15-2016 12:03 PM
Always seems one of the key components of a longshot winners is - CHANGE

Mitch44 07-15-2016 06:31 PM
That is one good key but like other factors some races have two or three and their hard to separate. I think good prices are a combination of several good keys.

Mitch44

Ryan.p.coli 07-15-2016 07:09 PM
Nice hit!

Not surprised on the big price considering the N3L condition + Turf.


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