M4$ Feb20 Challenge4 (mowens33)
 

Challenge4

Challenge4

Let’s take a look at one of the Aqueduct Pick 4 races.

My picks 7 and 5

Race 5
 

I see the race ..

Running Styles
Horse 1 - EP
Horse 2- S
Horse 3 - S
Horse 4 - S
Horse 5 - S
Horse 6 - Early
Horse 7 - S
Horse 8 - S (turf)

Fulcrum tandem 1-6 92.5
Pace 24.1 47.8 112.7

Horse 1 EP Line 1 Needs to keep up with the 6 again and improve its LPR
Layoff / works okay
Horse 2. SUS Line 1 Probably too far back
Horse 3 SUS Line 1 Distance issue Form Layoff good work
Horse 4 Sus Line 1 Nothing against today"s pace Form Work since last race
Horse 5 Sus Line 1 Ugly recent form even workouts seems like this horse
is not interested in racing anymore Back Class but pace will be fast today.
Horse 6 Early Line 1 Can go wire to wire today 2 good works since last race
Horse 7 Sus Line 3 Last 2 excusable, Position to today's pace should be ideal
Form 1 work since last race
Horse 8 Sus (turf) No recent comparable pacelines no data

I see the 3 and the 7 for win
The 6 could go wire to wire again and I will be wrong
but the 6 has no back to back wins

3 and 7

Attachment 39575

AQU 5

Narrowed it to contenders of 3,6,7.... gleaned from 24.1/47.8/112.7 projected pace. I think the 6 may wire again. Bill actually the 6 has won back to back to back if you look further back in the records of the PDF Mike posted. So he has done it. Of the two contenders which are OTE I prefer the 3 if only for price. May change when I see odds.

3,6

Pook

Scratches

2,4

Aq r5
 

Pace: 24.1 47.8 112.7
ote
contenders: 3-6-7-8

1 - will not keep up with #6 - out

2 - scratch

3 - competitive with this bunch - will be close at the mile mark if the pace collaspe

4 - scratch

5 - slow - out

6 - pace factor, if let alone and set 49 - game over - may be?

7 - fav look good, competitive with tihs group - like the fact he his up close in his races - what price will we get? Logical fav, going fishing for price

8 - aq playing well to horses going turf to dirt - like the fact he his up close - like his race 3 back 136.3


win: 3-8

Cigar I like your thinking on that 8. I couldn't bring myself to bet a horse that has never raced on dirt. But you are right in that Aqueduct is favouring that kind of horse for these type of races. He might be a price for you too.

Pook

In fact he will be a price. Hope you have him covered in the Pk 4 contest!