I used 2.0 seconds for run-up instead of 1.80 seconds
 

This is why the "caveat emptor" sign was on display...

I used 1.80 seconds for my previous adjustments and today, I used 2.0 seconds for the run-up adjustments...

Mendelssohn's adjusted fractions should be:

23.42 46.73 110:48 for 6F 135:06 for mile 147:66 for 9F and 1:54:06 for 9.5 F

Mendelssohn's last 3 furlongs for 9Furlongs is 37.18

:D

Bill Lyster's Mile Fractions
 

Bill L.

Thanks for burning the midnight oil on your Excel spreadsheet:

Attachment 46084

No problem. All I needed was the charts from last weekend and a list of the top 20 points earners. It was a rolling work in progress until then.

I found that a couple of horses running styles might need to be changed, but anyone can do that with the file I posted. Just change to whatever style you think is appropriate and re-sort. Then you can see the fastest fractions and positions by the various groups of horses and make your KD pics accordingly.

The winner needs to be close and gaining near the mile call an inordinate amount of times.

Good luck to all.

Concerning the above post, something from last year that emphasizes the need to be on or near the lead at the mile call in the Derby. Last year only adds to those stats as the winner ran on or near the lead all the way.

This quote was from Jon White's pre Derby analysis.

Attachment 46089

One more from last year:

Attachment 46090

An update from columnist Jon White today,

"But Kentucky Derby history shows that it is important for a horse to be able to make their move before they reach the final furlong. That's because 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to go."

WoW
 

Just like Doc said any horse in a route 1st on the turn coming home has advantage for sure

Text book Theory WoW

Comments from Pace Advantage.com
 

The Triple Crown section on PaceAdvantage.com is a very active board as with other boards; especially before the Kentucky Derby. For some, it is the time of the year where one's adrenaline gets souped up into "hyper-gear" based on participation and commentaries.

I am posting these comments only to make one "supposition" of comparison.

From "Dosage theorists and theories" and "angle" theorems. They all do one thing in common= they all back-track the angles and breeding to fit the "final results". I was at "one time" a "dosage-enthusiast until the Kentucky Derby where Strike the Gold won the Derby with a 9.0 dosage and Roman revised the Chef-de-Race designation of Alydar.

Currently, what has "sustained" my interests in the Kentucky Derby are the ideas and comments of Doc Sartin.

The Kentucky Derby is won by the top two Sustained Horse and the "Match-Up" of the early pace precedes all "suppositions".

Here are some quotes from Pace Advantage.com that I wanted to post here:

Attachment 46121

Attachment 46122

Attachment 46123

Attachment 46124

Attachment 46125

The last comment that I have pasted- It basically adds more "credence" to Doc Sartin's comments that the top two true contenders are the top Sustained Runners from the match-up.

A true contender must not be too far back from the Derby Early Pace matchup and must have the top Sustained Ability- very different than Closing abilities which is the last 3 furlong fractions.

Thus a quick surmise of this post is the "Depalma-Caris theory is Doc Sartin's Sustained Ability in 'sheep's clothing........

A letter from Doc Sartin on the Kentucky Derby:
 

a reposting of a letter from Howard Sartin:


Attachment 46126

Thanks, LS.
Do you remember Doc's guidelines for the Preakness and Belmont too?
I thing it was use the same pacelines as you did for the Derby, but go to the EARLY horses?

Can't remember what for the Belmont - maybe Pressers?

Thanks for the reminder!