Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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- - Why Horse Racing is Dying (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12816)

Why Horse Racing is Dying

Why Horse Racing is Dying:

President's Day card at Santa Anita: more than half of the races have 5 entries BEFORE scratches...sad.

From Ken Massa (HTR): betting $1 on every horse during 2019 results in an ROI of 0.75 -- that is, a loss of 25 cents for every $1 bet. This is 50% higher than the traditional 17% takeout often quoted. How to reconcile?

According to Massa, the seeming anomaly can best be explained by the fact that the average winning horse pays "underlay" odds (where underlay odds are below those than a horse's true probability of winning). He uses an example of an 8 horse field, where the random probability of a horse winning is 0.125, so a "fair" payoff is 7-1 odds. At a 17% takeout, the "random" payout for a $2 win bet would be around $13.30. BUT, during 2019, the average payout on winners in an 8 horse field was only around $12 on a $2 bet, which calculates to a 0.75 ROI.

Bottom line, the winning percentage of favorites is approaching 40% (mostly due to small field sizes), and the "true" takeout is approaching 25%. Since horse race betting is a pari-mutuel game, profits to winners comes ONLY from losses by losers. The current structure of the game makes it almost impossible to continually attract "dumb" money, since this kind of bankroll is drastically depleted by such a prohibitive "true" takeout. PT Barnum might have once said "a sucker is born every minute", but horse racing is quickly running out of suckers.

Now many on this board like to say "just handicap and bet winners, don't worry about anything else and you will win $". The research by Ken Massa simply does not support this kind of thinking. To win at the current game, we need to use factors that are not part of the public domain, and structure bets intelligently. The "vig" in horse racing is currently higher than most are aware, and probably more difficult to overcome these days than in the past.

Richard

Good post Richard. I have been a losing player for at least the past 6 years (reason enough for ME why I rarely wager anymore). Yea marriage and life events distract from the concentration necessary for ME to win but the game changed as far as things that I did to profit. prices on horses I spotted for win have dropped significantly erasing what was years ago a profitable profession to a negative return hobby today.

This is also one of the main reasons I have so much respect for guys like LT Tim, Mitch, Richie M, Bill V and others (The matchup guys who rarely post here)who are profiting in TODAYS racing environment.

Salute and all the best to all you cappers in todays environment who are successful!!

Richard you are correct about the percentage of favorites that are winning. What we have are small foaling rates each year, too many tracks competing for horses, small fields and essentially watered down racing.

I use to take $5.60 (9/5) but find that difficult anymore as they hammer horses down now. And even a good program like RDSS has difficulty getting the prices that Pace Handicapping received with Sartin many years ago.

To make a profit now a days one must pass races or be very selective in which races they play. Oh its definitely frustrating after putting the time into a race. Money management is even more critical than it was some years back.

Today the best races for good prices tend to be 3 year old races and the ugliest races on the card.

The proliferation of computers has also knocked the price down. Who can't afford a computer today? Recent form has always been a key factor in handicapping and with small fields everyone is looking at the same form horses.

I've been looking more at situational handicapping the pass few years and going against both the public and traditional handicapping. Such as horses with long layoffs(90 days or more) the diehards just won't play these because of the poor stats associated with them for winning, perhaps 90% against. That 90 % is for a nothing burger stat which can drastically be improved upon with adding things to that burger. Ditto for FTS etc. One can get that stat up to 25 % or more by refinement, plus one of those can make a huge difference in one's bottom line and erase many losers.

I recently said in a post it pays for one to know which races they have a higher win percentage in verses the ones they don't. It also pays to work on your weaknesses or shortcomings. I take pride in being able to play all types of races, all surfaces and all distances. This is where you can make the greatest gain, not in the area where your already good but in the area where your poor.

At one time you could just stick to your areas of expertise but in todays game the public has caught up with you. My ability today would have surpassed most of Sartin teachers back in the 90's but not so in todays game. Adapt and overcome or perish.

In todays game if you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown. Do the work, studies and research to stay ahead of the crowd which has always been the roadmap to follow for success.

Mitch44

On the east coast favorites are not winning @ 40%. The bottom line is you have to be a spot player to get the odds you want.

Take out on win is irrelevent because you know what the odds are before you bet. Even with exactas and daily doubles you know approx what they will pay.

I have never liked California racing.

Here's a horse off 176 days that I liked in the 7th FG today. I was on the phone with Lt1 talking about some recent changes in racing with Bris stuff.

3 Stop Shoppin Tammy 7/2 off 176 days

I told him I liked this horse that was off over 90 days. Bottom line was he didn't meet my requirements for odds as he was 1/1 at 1 minute to post so I passed on him. He won and paid $ 6.60. The odds went up but still the risk reward did not meet my criteria so I passed.

Mitch44

Here's a horse off 184 days that I played & paid $9.00.

Now I took a less odds than normal on this one because there were only 6 horses in the race. Good price for a 6 horse field.

Mitch44

<table class="toteboard" id="rbOutput"><tbody class="ng-scope" id="rbRows" ng-controller="rtbController"><tr id="1d65f-1213f" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"><td class="alignL"> COMPLETED:   1d65f-1213f  </td><td> FG
  </td><td> #8
  </td><td class="ng-binding">$4 Win</td><td class="ng-binding">1</td><td class="alignL faded">none  </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $4.00</td><td class="amount return"> $18.00
  </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9">+ $14.00

</td></tr></tbody></table>

Way to go Mitch.
Tim

ScottB:

To say "takeout is irrelevant" indicates you do not understand math. The higher the takeout, the fewer "price" horses you will find that fit your odds criteria. Raise the takeout, and 4-1 horses that you would ordinarily bet now become 3-1 or even 2-1 on the board. Takeout affects every bettor's bottom line.

Richard

Takeout without a doubt does effect a players bottom line and what they receive back. However it only effects a WINNERS bottom line, like yours Richard. If you can't get the winner than the takeout is irrelevant.

Know your capabilities and limitations( strengths & weakness), decide what you'll take and design your bet to take advantage of your strengths and the public weaknesses. Despite the low odds horses winning there are still lots of opportunities and the public still make mistakes every day. Know your enemy, study them. What kind of frequent mistakes do they make?

Mitch44

First off Thank you to Richie P for the compliment
on being able to win TODAY.
To Richard I will only speak from what I see.
At Del Mar They only show a few tracks for waging. The crowd is good but the room is small. There are a few hardy souls who sit outside but it is very chilly up on the third floor with winds coming off the ocean.
The crowd is almost 100% over 55 years old. Back when Richie and I
played at the Meadowlands we were in our late 30's and early 40's. We had lots of company in our age group. That is not the case today.
When I started and today I worry very little about takeout
What I see is racing as being dying from poor management for the last
20 years, They had a following but time has passed them by
I had 2 good days playing pick 4's and doubles this weekend, I was unable to go today.
But my buddy went and was going to play for me as a partner.
He played an early Pick 4 at Oaklawn, We lost , He said he left early.He said
it was too depressing seeing so few others there