Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Fairchild:

In the Yellow Manual Sartin showed an early embryo of how to tell if a horse is properly placed. The percentile figures can tell how well the horse coped with or handled the POR. Obviously if not well than it needs to take a class drop till it finds its capability.Note: besides POR it also may not have done well because it was entered at the wrong dis, surface or class.

In horses racing there is what's know as cheap speed, in that all horses can generally hold their speed for short distances. The more classier horses, say using man-made class designations generally hold their speed over longer distances, another characteristic is they run higher or better 3rd Fr. The POH verses the POR is a way of measuring how the horse coped or handled the race and determines if its properly placed, can take a class jump or needs a drop in class.

Early on Sartin wrote a program called Ultra Scan which used the concepts of POH & POR . It increased their win % but was cast aside for concepts that proved to get more winners or were more effective.

Within the present day RDSS those screens can be useful but they tend to be a pain as one must toggle back and forth between. As part of the summary screen(all the horses you entered) I tend to use POR as a confirmation screen as they do contain many winners within the top 4. I find that this isn't necessary a stand alone. EX. a horse can be ranked 4th with what seems a gap from the horse ranked #1 on Tot. En. but it still can win. Why? Well perhaps the best horse overachieved in that race and declines and also a different match up in todays race. This is something one has to play around with and even than I wouldn't recommend it. There are much better Factors within RDSS than POR Tot. Energy.

As I stated previously Ultra Scan was superseded by better programs. At this stage of the game what superseded it all was the Match Up. The make up of the horses in todays race has more of an influence on the outcome of the race that any POR & POH program. I would say concentrate on todays field and match-up and forget what's within the Yellow Manuel in reference to the POR and POH.

Plus doing those percentile figures by hand is tedious and very prone to mistakes. If done by a computer properly programed than it could have some value. Value to determine proper past placement as to dis., surface and form cycle. Plus was all on one tab or screen. But you can do all that on the horses POH screen.

You can do much better by analyzing the summary screen FPS which is the Match-UP for todays race. Think Dream race when looking at this.

Back to the POH tab for the horse, now here is a very useful screen that when analyzed is extremely useful that most overlook. I frequently refer to this screen and can decipher if a horses is improving or declining in form. If I chose a line that normally fits its running pattern. Note I said pattern not style. In order for your match up to be correct a line must be chosen that both fits its ESP or style and normal pattern within that style.

The harder ones to discern are the E, EP & P as they will adapt to the pace pressure of todays race. An easer example would be a one run closer that has a big 3rd FR, I'll peruse its POH screen and see if that's its normal pattern. If it isn't I use a different line for that horses based on how it normally runs. I.e. if it normally runs a good HE or both the 2nd and 3rd FR. It makes my match up more effective and my readouts more accurate.

Pretty much every screen has value however some are more valuable than others. I'd say forget about that old stuff of combining the two POR & POH, there are other reason why their combining isn't effective besides form reversals etc. Use the POH within the program as its a very valuable tool that for the most part is under used and under appreciated.

Mitch44