Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)
-   Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=116)
-   -   Abigail Adams Handicap (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11795)

Bill V. 08-28-2018 01:32 PM

Abigail Adams Handicap
 
4 Attachment(s)
This is the first handicap race I have come across since Ted added the weight
on the entry screen for the upcoming updates on RDSS

This is a restricted 25,000 stakes race for 3+ horses bred in Mass who have never won $50,000

The 3 high weights are 2 # 5 and #8

Here are my notes
Abigail Adams Handicap ST 25000 Mass breds


Attachment 47047


Horse 1 Colins Go Go
Today is not the day to try to win first-time. 0-26 maiden

Horse 2 Angry Patty
She has been off 339 days She ran well after a 274-day layoff but the percentages are poor to win after a year off.

Horse 3 Greta
She shows early speed but not much else

Horse 4 Indian Legacy E7
Great early speed just another day in this form cycle
I will rate him from line 1 it's a (+)

Horse 5 Jeb
Returns to FL from Suf. last three races were against Stake 50's
I will excuse line 1 and 2 and use the + races line 3 against better than she will face today one of the high weights.

Horse 6 Cheer For Grace
Still a maiden and only as 1 + paceline in ten races

Horse 7 Dr. Ruthless
Keeps trying against in stakes level races but just can't run a plus race as a sprinter

Horse 8 Tropical Joy
Solid stakes level horse, Has 8 + plus races against 35000 claimers and
5 stakes races in a row, Both lines 1 and 2 are + races Line 1 is on a sloppy track
Line 2 is a route, 2nd highest weight

Horse 9 Chasing Blue
Has been trying stakes company but can't seem to run a plus race against sprinters, Been off 92 days.


Here are my readouts

Attachment 47045


Attachment 47046

and while I had Thoromation out and working

Attachment 47048

Lt1 08-28-2018 01:56 PM

Now that's what I call a creative Racing Sec. Cards a stake race for Mass breds at a N.Y. track.
Tim

Bill V. 08-28-2018 05:42 PM

Replay
 
2 Attachment(s)
That worked out really well :)
Two of the top 3 high weights make the exacta. I bet $24 on the 5 and $9 on the 8
Not exactly how I wanted to dutch the race but I have trouble sometimes entering numbers. I get dizzy and mixed up. I am practicing by entering lines in old dos programs.

Anyway, It was a very good day :)

I thank you with all my heart for looking in.

Bless you

Bill

Attachment 47049

Attachment 47050

Bill V. 08-28-2018 05:48 PM

Relay
 
4 Attachment(s)
Here are the fractions and positions from the replay

The winner #5 sits 4th at the first call

Attachment 47052

The winner #5 Make a big move on the turn and takes over first

Attachment 47051

The 5 opens up in the stretch, meanwhile, the 8 moves up to second
The race is in the bag as my two win bets are 1-2 :)

Attachment 47053

The 5 wins and 8 places

Attachment 47054

tom 08-30-2018 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 117233)
Now that's what I call a creative Racing Sec. Cards a stake race for Mass breds at a N.Y. track.
Tim

Two of them this week.
FL has had a lot of SUF shippers over the years, so I guess it is to give these guys a shot at some races with the reduced racing in MASS. Clever sec.

Lt1 08-30-2018 12:33 PM

They card some unusual race up there especially toward the end of the meet. He does a pretty good job with what he has to work with.
Tim

Dorianmode 08-31-2018 12:01 AM

Finger Lakes #9 8/28/18 6F DS
 
3 Attachment(s)
So ... you did such a nice job with the analysis, (congrats on the win, BTW !!), I thought I'd run it through my dirt sprint profile and see what popped out. Since I didn't play it, I had to be honest and say that I could only forgive one of the two races for the 5. If I had played it, the second speed rating was within it's "normal" range, so I left it in.

So here's what some of my final screens looked like ... I won't explain them all, just a general comment.

My RDSS screens looked very similar.

The first shot below is my own set of stats I run on the speed ratings, somewhat similar to NewPace ... but without and early-late bias ... (that gets put in elsewhere).

The second screen is a set of numbers that are weighted from exacta, trifecta and perfecta profiles. To be honest I should look at these more, ... but these worked nicely so I add them here.

The last one is the last screen that's weighted from all kinds of junk I threw together, weighted and summed. Since it happened to include the perfecta in 4, I show it. I should have played this race !


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:48 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.