The Early Non Contender
 

Sometimes in matching you are forced to consider whether a runner you determined to be a non-contender could affect the pace and outcome of a race.

In Woodbines 2nd race today I had five contenders... 1,4,5,6,8. There were two early runners... 1 and 2. I figured the 2 would lead or hassle the 1 enough to compromise his chance to win, so I eliminated the 1 from my contender list. The public disagreed with the ML and had 1 as favourite at 5-2 from 10-1.

It looked like an opportunity, with a solid matching reason, to discount a contender and favourite. Leaving the 1 as a contender had me on 1 and 4. With the 1 out I centered on 4,5 or 8 after removing the 6 as not being quick enough. I wasn't able to get the odds I was looking for so I passed but it ran perfectly as shown below. I have mentioned this before and I thought that this was a good illustration. Sometimes (always an early runner) a non-contender, can compromise a contenders race. You have to get the complete picture by looking at every horse.

I always watch for it. The odds didn't work out this time, but they will later .

Pook

I agree with you Pook that a non-contender can have an influence on the pace of the race. Once you know the true Match Up of the contenders its very easy to check the non-contenders, thus eliminating a very detailed process. Actually there were 3 horses that figured in the pace of this race alter the 10 scratched and they were the 1,2 & 8.

I demand at least 3 earlies or more to have an early effect on pace. The reason for that is that with only 2 horses and one is not in form than the pressure or duel never sets up or materializes. The more the merrier.

When there are 3 or more, one key lies in their 3rd FR of pace and their DCL or how fast they decelerate. They don't all do this at the same rate and many times one will hang on for the EX or Tri. If only one the others will loaf behind the lone early who will feels comfortable and will slow down and many times hang on for the Place.

The 5 here was the Counter Energy horse and the race set up perfect for him. Also paying $8 was generous. This horse had won 9 of 18 starts on turf for 50%. Now 10 of 19 starts, that includes some sprints in there so win rate is even better considering distance. For an 8 year old is very consistent. The 1 horse was a 4 year old with only 3 turf starts and a win at the distance, or most upside of the 1, 2 & 8.

Mitch44

Can someone square me away on something here which I should know but I'm not sure. Let's use the 2 as an example. In the tandem race, the fractions are 24.2 47.9 1:11.6 1:44.5. The beaten lengths are 2nd 1.5L, 2nd .5L, 1st 1 1L, and 3rd 3.8L. Now do these position calls relate to the time fractions. In other words, does the first number 24.2 relate to 2nd by 1.5L and so on. If I'm looking at a racing form, is the relationship the same.

Looking at the 1 and 2 from the tandem, the 2 makes a 1L move from the 1st quarter to the half mile and then tacks on another 1/2 length from the 1/2 to the 6 furlong point while the 1 is loose in 24.2 and stops. The Hat talked about the dream race in almost everything he wrote. I'm only looking at these two horses but the dream race here definitely favors the 2.