FG Jan 18
 

I wonder if someone can help me understand the following:

Silver Dust is cross entered in the 10th (dirt) and 11th (turf) tomorrow at Fair Grounds.

His EPR and TPR ratings are not the same, driven by differences in the EPR. His ratings for the 11th are higher than those for the 10th.

I see that the APV and CR are higher for the dirt race, and I would have expected his EPR rating for the 10th (dirt, his preferred surface) would have been higher than the 11th, the race on the turf. Don't know how others feel, but I don't find that dirt early speed transfers to turf - synthetic maybe, but dirt, not very often.

Thanks

Bill

Same
 

Hello Bill

I get the same thing

My guess, Ted? RDSS uses the DTV and ITV to calculate the TPR numbers.
It looks like the turf and dirt adjustment in the ITV adjusted the TPR
about 1 point difference

Attachment 48690
Attachment 48691

Thanks Bill - appreciate your response. Still lots to learn on the pace adjustment methodology (and everything else!).

Fortunately the site has great indexing and search capabilities - now just need to find the time.

Hello wcgreene;


If you notice the Total Energy numbers are pretty much the same. Bill is correct in that its how the variant is applied. In Total Energy its applied to all 3 Fractions and in TPR its applied to only the Second Call and 3rd FR. or 2 points rather than 3 places.

It really depends on how the variants are applied to the SC and 3rd FR, such as it could be a straight 60% to SC and 40% to 3rd FR. Which by the way is not as accurate as it could be. Without knowing how it actually applied(only Ted can answer that) its hard to say if it could be improved upon.

This horse has never ran on turf in his present chart which is why its dirt rating are higher for the dirt race, that is APV and CR are higher for the dirt Race. You'll also notice that his morning line is lower for the dirt race than the turf race because he must prove his ability to run on turf.

Without accessing the contenders for both races its hard to say which is more advantageous for him to run in or the weaker field. I would suspect the trainer will opt for the dirt race but then again perhaps he has worked the horse on the turf and knows the horse could improve on the turf. There is risk reward there with a M/L of 8-1 but I would have to have more information than appears here to make a decision on a horse that must prove something that he has never done.

Mitch44

Wins Easy
 

Silver wins the tenth race easy

Attachment 48692