Marathon @ Del Mar
 

12f affair today on the poly.

Hat's Marathon Spot Play concepts can be found here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026

Today's entries and race conditions

The field with middle tab set on tandems

.,.

Hi Rich-

I looked at this race this morning and thought it was pretty interesting. I can use lots of help with marathons. I'll lay out my take on the race, but I have some questions along the way maybe you can help with...

#1 Ghetto On my first run through this race I felt like this one is a lone early who is pretty fast off the last line (47 and 111.3) I see in both of his wins though he needs a clear lead. After looking at the mile times of some other contenders it appears that he is not quite as fast at that point.

There were three OTE runners that I saw as sticking out at the mile mark:

#2 Zappa He ran Sus in his last, closing to be fourth against a very fast early pace (22.2 45.2 109.1 134), beaten 3 lenghts at the mile I guess that makes 134.3. Going down to line 6 he went wtw and earned a 134.1. He's only won before early, but his last two races show he's changed his style to OTE.

#9 Unusual. Ran a close 4th last time against a fast final time (23.4 47.2 111.1 134.2), beaten 1.6 lenghts makes about at 134.3 or 134.4

#10 Sir Ran a good race last time closing to 2nd versus a ridiculously slow pace, so I went back to line 2 (45 109.3 133.4) where he only finished a neck behind.

So here are is my final matchup:

#2 Zappa 22.2 45.2 109.1 134 7-8-8-4
23.3 47.1 111.0 134.1 1-1-1-1

#9 Unus 23.4 47.2 111.1 134.2 9-9-6-4

#10 Sir 45 109.3 133.4 5-3-2-2

To me, #10 really stands out with a mile time edge and based on "closest to the pace factoring POR" as well.

I have two questions though:

1) In the final analysis, are you strictly matching mile times, or do use that in conjunction with the "closest to the pace factoring pace of race"?

2) Is there an early / other than early decision? If this race was 1 1/16 or 1/ 1/8 today, I would give strong consideration to #1 Ghetto. I don't see another early or early presser who could bother him versus a 47 111.3, unless Zappa reverts back to his previous early form. But, using the mile mark as an inidcator, OTE horses clearly look faster.

Anyway, thanks for the race, and appreciate any feedback.

Adds to Pete's questions:

Many times there are horses whose best times are from mile races. To me it seems like, since its a marathon, that it would advantage those horses too much, especially where the mile times are one turn. Did the Hat give any guidance on the use of mile times from mile races? Did he prefer the mile time to be extracted from longer races or just to use the mile time from 9F and longer races if available?

Thanks,

Bill

Hi Guys
We are to find the horse we think will have the lead at the 1 mile mark and to equalize distances in the pps we use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) per 1/2 furlong to accomplish this. I was taught to always factor positioning coupled with pace of race Pete.

This race I got #1-#2-#10 as initial 3 contenders then chopped out the #2.

I have the bookends #1 and #10 as final contenders. Straight up line matching gets the #10 while blending lines/positions gets the #1 in my head.

:)

Hi Guys,

I did wagercapping like Barb was talking about and I hit the 1$ exacta box. I played 2,7,9 for Cougar Race.

I kick my butt because I should of did it for $2.00 exacta box. Still got $158.60 for this race.

Result of the race:


Good hit to all that had it

Marathon question
 

First off, thanks Richie for the post and link to Hat's spot play. Helped me tremendously at Sar this past weekend and now I'm searching for more. Like todays.

Sar r4 - 2 mile on dirt.

My question pertains to this distance. Should I still find who will be leading at the mile mark? Which is only halfway thru this race.

Is there any other criteria for a race this long? Maybe the 1-1/4 mile mark?

Thanks a bunch.

Chris

Hi Chris
I checked my notes on races I had done with Jim:

We never worked a race of that distance. The longest was 12f and Jim wanted me to find the leading horse at the 8f mark.

I'm glad Hat's concepts helped you at the Spa Chris!
:)