Contenders
 

For those who are having a few problems getting the contenders in most races I thought I would share my findings.
In 565 races I have found that over 90% of all winners have a rating of 4 or lower in one of these three ratings , CSR , Profit Line , or Bris Prime Power.
520 wins .92
481 place .85
In most races this gives me 5 or 6 contenders to run thru RDSS.

As I have stated before I only play races with at least 8 betting interests .
No maiden races.
No races for 3 Yr olds and up before July 1st.
No turf races.
I prefer races at 5.5f, 6f, 8f , 1mi and 70 yards ,and 8.5 f.
These are the most common distances run at the tracks I like to play.
I do NOT eliminate any horses for being off over 90 days OR whose Morning Line is 20/1 or higher. Rdss will separate the true contenders and get it down to two or three main win contenders a very high percentage of the time.

I hope this information is a help to any and all who are having trouble getting the main contenders for win.
If anyone has any questions feel free to PM me or call me.
Rmath

Thanks for taking the time to share this Richie. Hope to see more post from you since you are very versed in the use of the Methodology and have had great prior success which has been documented in various follow ups.
Tim

Thanks
 

Thanks Tim.
I appreciate your kind words.
Rmath

Members would be smart to follow your post Richie. They'll benefit from a lot of hard work and record keeping, which allows them to get off to a great start out of the starting gate of this difficult game.

Richie goes back to the early 90's with Sartin, he also applies a consistent approach to the game and one can benefit greatly from his experience.

Mitch44

Thank you
 

Thank you Richard

Thanks for compiling the data. We appreciate your helping folks find winning
contenders and a solid base for races to play

Good skill and health

Bill

Thank you Mitch and Bill.
I can only hope that the info will help others become more successful in this wonderful pastime of horse racing.
Rmath

Thanks rmath.

Thanks. Great data. I have found it helpful to make a "contender" profile, (as separate, in addition to a win profile, from a number of elements, just so I don't forget to look at something. It's very helpful. I'm keeping data on it now, for a while to see how reliable it is.

Mostly, I wanted to share this little tool in Excel, (attached, which can be modified in any way you care to) which has been very helpful to me. It was demonstrated to me by one of our, now, non-active members. It's an enhancement of the Excel "Small" function. I put the instructions in the file. Basically it allows the researcher to enter (change) the percentage IN WHICH winners are found in data already collected. For example, say I have some data on the final placement of APV. If I set the "Small" function (that's what it's called), to 0.75, it will rank the indicators for their accuracy in finding 75 percent of the wins in that category. You can change it to whatever you want. So instead of 75 percent, I could look for 90 percent, (ie change the "small" value to 0.90), and it will change the output to what it sees for that.

Let me know if there are questions.

Attachment 46190

So in your example the yellow cell is set at 80%. No problem with the results in the APV column, but the BL column shows 1.8 where 3 of the 7 entries are #1 and two are #2. So 5 of the 7 are either 1 or 2 (5/7)ths = 71.43%. somewhat similarly in the BL/BL# column 5 of the 7 entrants are ranked #1 (again 71.42%)

It appears that if the yellow cell was set at 70% the above would be true answers, as opposed to 80%

Am I missing something?

Thanks Bill
 

No Bill, I think you get it.

The data are "dummy" data, .... input some real data you have, I suggest. I just was checking to make sure it was working. I made them up to show the tool.

The green data with 0.80 showing is (means) :
"How high in the data do you have to go to get 80 % of it, starting with the smallest".

On a practical level for us, that means the lower the green number, the better the indicator works. Basically I want 1's and 2's in my data ... to capture the wins.

Great question.
In general I was wondering (other than this) if there is any interest in having an "Excel" thread ... to talk about tools, and tricks ?