Kentucky Derby 2013
 

Here are the PP's for the race for anyone who wants to match or to use as a reference for Bill L.'s good post about mile times in the Derby...

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9112

As a guy who hasn't picked a derby winner since Swale, take this all with a grain of salt.

At first glance, there is not much early speed in this race. I think it will be won by a horse near the lead. Only Verrazano and Golden Cents look early.

After calculating mile times, I came up with:

Itsmyluckyday 1:35.2
Goldencents 1:35.3
Orb 1:35.4
Lines of Battle 1:37.0 (I decided to use his 7f race 3 back and add 12.4 seconds)

Then, I calculated the three year best at 1 1/8 miles.

SA 1:46.2
OP 1:48.2
GP 1;47.2
AQU 1:49.1
FG 1:48.3
KEE 1:46.3

Analysis:

Snce Goldencents earned his times at Santa Anita which is the fastest three year best, I am going to toss him. This got me in trouble last year with I'll have Another. Orb has won three in a row (a HAT angle) and will have to come from a ways back so I'll toss him.

This leaves me with Itsmyluckyday who seems to have the right running style (P), can pass horses, and is 15/1 on the morning line. I am also going to use Lines of Battle just in case the decent figure earned in Europe as a 2 YO holds up.

Good luck.

Tim

Hi to all. I like the #8 Goldencents here. Not only did he run fast at sax but he ran very fast at Ded.

emilio

I see the three earlies as Goldencents, Verrazano and Falling Sky. Goldencents is faster than those and could go all the way. I don’t think the pace will be too fast so I’m not looking for OTE runners who are way out of it. Of that group my final contenders are Itsmyluckyday, Normandy Invasion and Overanalyze. Tough for me to separate those four.

Tim, BTW, I believe Tup closes Tuesday. I should be able to take a look at the card. Maybe we can share some thoughts.

All the best in the Derby...

Modeling past Derby pacelines
 

First of all, I want to be clear that there are many different approach to this endeavor of ours; each gets their own segments of winners. While different opinions may be different and of opposite poles of views; the bottom line or net profits is what is most important and is the only measurement of success in this game.

When I look at the pps of the Derby field, I want to see a line that compares to past Derby winners. Some other school of thought question our methodology because we seem to focus on one paceline; while they focus on the "figures." Each method gets their own segments of winners. I am in no position to opine as to which method is best. I can only focus on my own endeavors and my own opinions.

I want to post the past performances of the 2010 Derby winner, Super Saver. In my humble opinion, I believe that Goldencents has pacelines that resemble his pacelines. In Goldencents' race as a two year colt, he raced at the bullring track at Delta Downs. It was a million dollar race and he ran a spectacular race that resembled Super Saver's two year old paceline over the Churchill Down racetrack. It was this paceline that gave me a strong opinion for Goldencents to win the Santa Anita Derby. It might not be that obvious; but this was a strong sustained race for Goldencents and it has a striking comparison to Super Saver's pacelines; down to the last paceline before the Derby; where Super Saver chased a fast early pace and came in second.

As a footnote; the track maintenance crew at Santa Anita started adding tons of sand before last year Santa Anita Derby to slow the track speed down. I am no expert of track speed or in making speed figures but the adding of sand has slowed most of the race times. The use of 3 year best times should be use with caution.

Super Saver
Attachment 34225

Goldencents
Attachment 34226

My choice to win the 2013 Kentucky Derby is Goldencents.

Good skills to everyone.

I agree on the issue of 3 year best times. Isn't that in part what the adjusted speed ratings are for - to adjust to the best recent times, etc.?

Bill Lyster,

I do not use the "adjusted speed ratings" from Rdss nor do I use Rdss.

Hope that answers your question.

Result
 

Palace Malice sets a suicidal pace and totally changes the Match-Up scenario. Orb takes advantage...

Pletcher trainer of Palace Malice and also some closers. Maybe a classical Bradshaw "rabbit" setup, only the wrong closer won? Different owners though.

Turf Paradise closing day
 

Pete and any other interested matchers,

It would be great to match the card at TuP on Tuesday.

However, there is a possibility of rain here tomorrow and maybe Tuesday. Rain anytime between April 1st and July 1st is extremely rare here. If there is a lot of rain, they may cancel the card. It is extremely difficult to run on this track when it's wet. It doesn't absorb moisture well. Hopefully, that won't happen. I'll keep you posted.

The card includes the Hasta La Vista handicap at 1 7/8 miles on the turf. It gives us the chance to use the HAT marathon method!

I'm looking forward to it.

Tim