PEN 01/09/07 Race #7
 

Re this: www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=33667

While working on some new screens in RDSS (BL/BL) I couldn't resist trying my hand at this 'inscrutable' race. Completely after the fact, and not that I necessarily would have bet it, but it does illustrate to me that sometimes things are not as murky as they seem!

Original lines, with some Running Styles and a Projected Pace (U = Unknown/Ugly):
http://www.artofpace.com/rdss/screen...ncposts/1b.gif

Bottom Line/Betting Line Screen:
http://www.artofpace.com/rdss/screen...ncposts/1a.gif

Whether or not you 'hide' the favouorite #7, or conclude from a match up analysis that it will be sorely taxed on the front end by others who at least tried to run against its projected pace of 24.6 49.9, would you have included the winner somewhere in a wager? Maybe, maybe not, but allowing that someone has to win this race, at the odds, this is a bit of an X-ray into what's going on. I think Val and Spec users should have seen much the same.

http://www.artofpace.com/rdss/screen...ncposts/1c.gif

Note: I'm still not happy with the layout of the new BL/BL screen (rather busy, no?) but our old friend V/DC is back and the Deceleration fig from Spec makes an appearance. Let's see what the testers think...

Ted

BTW, here's the Past Performance of the winner. Its form was well hidden:)

http://www.artofpace.com/rdss/screen...ncposts/1d.gif

Good job on this race Ted. The software is looking very impressive.
Stan

How an horse with a record of 77 0-1-11 win a race?
As we see from Ted output, never discard any horse, no matter how bad he might look on paper.
Just choosing the first paceline the horse become a contender. How so, because from Ted's words, "Its form was well hidden". That's called trainer intent, in my neck of the woods.
How Qpublic would would send #4 at 9:1 when in the last 10 races finished last in all of them (2 races second to last), and send the #5 horse at 27:1, wich IMO is better horse.
Would I have bet #5? Not to win, but most surely in a combo.
#1 Last 3 races were conditioned. This horse is learning how to distribute his energies. If you look the last 3 lines you can se an improvement in postions tru the pacecalls. He has the highest LP speed rating of the field. Is a contender.
#2 #3 #4 Out
#5 This horse recorded the highest total speed rating of the field. In his last race he jumped 34 points in late speed ratings and 9 points in total speed ratings. The trainer is dropping the horse at lower level and horse is fresh.
Then I look at the past odds and I notice that the horse was send off at 13:1 in his second race back, off a class rise (MC7500). Bingo! The trainer is betting money. Qpublic would never bet this horse off a class rise, no with this kind of record. And today, again the horse was send off at 28:1 (more than 50% from last race). For me it means that the trainer is shooting with this horse. There were other obscurities in this horse's pp that made him a contender.

I'm not going into much details for the #6 or #7. My bets would have been 1-5-6-7 for an Ex box.
Ted, you might want to check race #2 in the same card. See what you come up with. I got tired and I went to bed after race #2. I should have stay up.
Regards,
lbj

P.S.
Your software looks very good, and picks winners as well.

Blbl
 

Ted the program is really looking good
I see the BLBL screen is working that is great news
as always thank you for your work on the site

GS
Bill

Thanks folks for the commentary. I look forward to seeing stuff from more testers in the coming weeks.

Just to keep things in perspective (for me), I feel sometimes like an orchestra conductor, aggregating and portraying the ideas from many sources in this new package. Of course, the primary source of all these ideas is Doc Sartin, so if you compliment me, you really compliment him. Richie, Marty Dahl, Gary Levin, Brian Simpson all kicked in very useful ideas so far, and lots more to come. And I'm grateful to Jim Bradshaw for teaching the Match Up, which has inspired me to add a few related items. The rest of the Analysis screens should show up over the next few weeks, then I'm close to the next Beta testing round.

Ted

When you look up COOL in the dictionary you see Marty Dahl's picture!
;)