Gulfstream Park Saturday (3 Matchers in a Row)
 

Saturday Feb 21 at Gulfstream has 3 quality races in a row 6,7,8! For those wishing to match they offer a Grade 3 dirt sprint, a Stakes turf sprint, and then a Grade 2 dirt route. All with speed man speed! The races are attached below but haven't been updated with program numbers yet for those wanting an early look.
I'll post updated files when they become available.

Pook

Here are the updated pdf's with program numbers. They all have a good Early contingent. Match any or all.

Hopefully our resident sequential race master Mike(I get 'em in a row)Mowens will take a shot at the Pick 3 here. For those of you who may not know, Mike took down a nearly $10,000 Pick 5 using his Match-up and RDSS skills recently.

Good luck to all.

Pook

Early comments on race shapes
 

Race 6
Appears to be 3 early horses with the 5 suspect; the rest have all shown wins from 4th or farther back. I see the 3 and 8 early with the rest hoping they collapse

Only two in field have won a Grade 3, but a couple of others have been close in Gr 2 and Gr 1 races which may indicate a better kind of horse.

Race 7
13 horses before scratches; 4 E or EPs, with most of the rest looking like some kind of P; the 4 appears to run from farthest behind, but its times are not near top. I'll wait for scratches.

Race 8
14 horses. for 9 of the horses their best times have to be projected from sprints. The fastest route time comes from the 6 and then the 7, 9, 10 and 12 have fast projected times. Probably best to match the sprints, take best two and compare to routers. A couple of scratches might help the evaluation process.

Good luck

Race 6 #1 scratched

Race 7 #7 scratched

Race 8 #11 scratched

Scratches:

#1 is out in the 6th. #7 is out in the 7th. #11 is out in the 8th.

Looks like Pook and I nailed the scratches with the exact same time stamp.

Race #6: I see the 3 and the 8 as matching earlies. Then there's the 5. The 5 has slow first fractions but monster internal fractions indicating he may be able to go faster early or he may be able to run off the pace. What's more, the 5 is a five YO with all 3 races off layoffs. Who knows. I'll make him part of the pace. OTE horses are the 2, 6, and 7. My pick is the 2.

Race #7: earlies are 3, 9, 10, and 12. In a turf race with this many earlies, I'm looking OTE. OTE horses are the 2, 12, and 13. My choice is the 12.

Race #8: Earlies are the 3, 9, 10, 12. Once again, I'm looking OTE. The 2 and 4 stick out. The big power move horse is the 4. That's my choice.

Good luck with the pick 3.

Race 6, with the 1 scratched:

The 3 probably repeats as the pace setter, but has been giving it up & appears to need an open lead to win; the 2 has won longer races on the lead but its best sprints are pressing. The 5 has raced only on the lead and at paces slower than today, but the 5 YO is undefeated. Could be a presser, but if he is E he should pressure the 3. The 4 is SLOW. The 6 is a Grade 3 winner last out and has pressed and won at 2nd calls of 45.2 and 45.1 - today should be faster. The 7 is largely unknown, but is 1/1 at the distance and at GP last winter, looked like the last was a needed race and has run faster on poly - could be a surprise if speed fails or make a nice #2 spot on the exacta ticket. The 8 beat the 3 handily last out.

My picks are 8 and 2 to win with an eye on the 7's odds

race 7, with the 7 scratched:
who excels at this distance. Well the 1 is 5/12 wins; 8/12 1st or 2nd; the 2 has 3/5 wins at this distance and is 2/2 at GP; the 3 has 4/5 wins and 5/5 1st or 2nd; the 6 has 5/6 wins; the 12 has 2/6 wins and 6/10 1st or 2nd.

The E horses are the 1, 3, 5, 11, the 6 and possibly the 8, but the 8 won this race last year as a P and the 6 having won 4 wire to wire, won its last as a P - but has been laid off more than 3 months.

The early pace should be blazing so a horse from at least 4th back should be looked at strongly. Or at least a presser that has been off the lead by say 2 or more lengths.

The 2 has won as a P from 3rd, 2 off, and an E; the 8 won last year from 4th by 4.75 lengths; the 12, Jewel of a Cat has made runs from 4th a couple of times vs sub 44 fractions and has done reasonably well off layoffs; the 13 is also a pretty dedicated closer vs 44's.

If I play a pick 3 I will play all three (2-12-13) and win on the two best odds.

For me this is mostly a shape race. I can see the 2 and 13 running 55.6 and the 12 running 56.1

Race 8, with the 7 scratched:

The standout horse for me is the 6 Puca, coming from off the pace in the BC Juv Fillies. All the other routers times are 137 or slower. Of the 8 horses whose best races are sprints, I see the 12 closing 5-3-1-1 vs the fastest sprint of the group (a projected 45.3-109.4 fraction.

6 and 12 for me to win.

Hope we all do well today.

Bill

little out of practice
 

Hi my match up friends.
I am a little out of practice, Do you mind if I jump in using phase 1 ?

I just have race 6 .
I will go OTE with 6 and 7

Attachment 38560

Thanks to everyone for taking part with your opinions and picks. Makes for interesting reading if you are into matching. And its nice to see Bill V. back in the saddle.

Here is my take on race 6. (the 5 just opened at 1-9 with $12000 in the win pool ...somebody must like this horse that has never lost!)

Pook

Race 7