Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   2015 Matchup Challenge (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=142)
-   -   MC November 14 by The Pook (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10305)

The Pook 11-11-2015 03:09 PM
MC November 14 by The Pook
 
1 Attachment(s)
Pook

The Pook 11-13-2015 07:06 PM
1 Attachment(s)
For a change of pace from a lot of early speed lets go with a dogs breakfast from PRX. Nov 14, Race 4. No early to speak of, a sprinter with no route lines in a route, a turfer with no dirt lines going on dirt.

Good luck,

Pook

mowens33 11-14-2015 10:41 AM
Race 4

Pace: 24.6-48.8-112.8

I like the 3 on lead or closeup for the win.

raceman5 11-14-2015 11:14 AM
Race 4
 
Nasty race. NW4L alot of times in these races we see alot of trainer moves. One of them is the #5 drop back where it belongs and has competitive pace figs. The other horse i like is #3 a sprinter stretching out and finishes by gaining in the end which the hat wanted to see with a sprinter going to a route. Plus his final times are much better then the routers half mile times which are pretty slow.

My bets are 3-5


Bob

The Pook 11-14-2015 11:35 AM
Scratch the 1

Capcondo 11-14-2015 12:08 PM
Prx #4
 
Thanks for putting this up Pook. It's an interesting race. Coming from PRX, it presents interesting challenges since the purses are so high there.

The 3 is obviously the sprinter you're referring to. She may get some company up front from the 10. I think the race will run OTE.

The others:

2: OTE from a middle position. Last line shows she can run at the end.
4: Last two lines ugly. OUT.
5: Does her best running near the lead. Won from the second position. OUT.
6: Only good S type race against good pace was on WF surface. Last two races poor. OUT
7: Good S type who won last. Will be too far back. OUT.
8: Have to believe she has had opportunities to run on dirt from turf races rained out. OUT.
9: Deeply sustained type horse with lots of ugly races. OUT.

The 2 is my choice to win the race.

The Pook 11-14-2015 12:46 PM
Prx #4

47/112.8/144.2
Most are eliminated for me through slower tandems. I see the 3 wiring.

3

Pook

PeteC 11-14-2015 01:44 PM
Prx#4
 
The routers look very slow to me. The sprinter projects a nice easy lead here and will have every chance to lead all the way. Stamina is the only question as I usually like to see sprinters in routes who can close a little bit. I'd love to find a fast OTE runner at a nice price, especially given my standing in the contest, but I don't see one. I'll take the 3.

Bill V. 11-14-2015 02:07 PM
lost
 
Well I lost this race but i had issues with the 10
Who had the back class but did nothing except hurt the 3

anyway for what its worth here s my workup

horse 10
Code:
PRX1114 4 8.3 D CL 3+F $23,000 CP=$7,500 1:46PM            10/10
JOCK/TRAIN      R  W  P  S  W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS  W%      EPS  R
BOWMAN, ADAM    48  1  1  1    2 LIFE  24  3  7  3    94,736  13    3,947  2
POLACHEK, JANE  8  0  0  1    0 CURR  11  0  6  2    43,945    0    3,995  5
(c) 35 /LAKE $8,000                PAST  10  3  1  0    45,710  30    4,571  2
ML=12/1                            D-RT  18  3  7  2    88,650  17    4,925  2
 10 GROOVY DANCER            AGE=4  OFF-D
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC  BL1  BL2  BLS  BLF  SR  ESP    L PI
1  35PRX 5FT 8.3D  48.2 113.2 143.1  2.00  4.10 15.50 26.50  45          1
2  63MTH 5FT 8.3D  48.3 113.2 145.2  3.00  4.50  3.20  6.30  55          2
3[  91MTH10FT 8.0D  49.1 113.4 143.7  2.00  1.60  2.50  0.50  68          3    ]
4  126PRX 1FT 8.0D  48.3 113.3 144.4  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.30  63          4
5  147MTH 9FT 8.3D  48.0 112.1 143.0  2.70  4.50  6.00  7.80  64          5
6  160PRX 5FT 8.0D  50.6 114.3 143.4  0.70  0.15  0.15  3.50  67          6
7  181PRX 4FT 8.0D  46.1 112.1 144.8 11.00  5.10  0.00  0.00  63          7
8  197PRX 3FT 8.3D  51.1 115.7 146.3  0.15  0.00  0.00  0.00  56          8
9  216PRX 6FT 8.3D  47.2 113.1 145.5  2.10  0.00  0.00  1.50  58          9
A  259PRX 7FT 8.3D  47.5 112.5 142.5  3.20  4.70  8.50 14.80  60          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE          PU/CP JOCKEY        PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 SAEZ, GABRIEL  7  9  9    9.90  CLOSE UP, GAVE WAY
2 AL-3+FSNW1    50,000 CASTELLANO, AB  5  3 11    3.90  CHASED BTWN, EVENLY
3[AL-3+FSNW1    50,000 GARCIA, WILMER  5  2  7    2.80  RAIL TRIP, RALLIED
4 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 DAVIS, JACQUEL  2  2  5    3.40  DUELED, HELD GAMELY
5 AL-3+FSNW1    50,000 TRUJILLO, ELVI  3  2  8    3.90  TRACKED, GAMELY 2ND
6 CL-3+FNW1    12,500 CARSON, LAURA  3  2  5    2.10  STALKED, BID, WEAKENED
7 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 CARSON, LAURA  2  2  6    4.20  FUMBLED REINS, NIPPED
8 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 CARSON, LAURA  1  5  5    0.90* MILD URGING, DQ'ED
9 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 VALENTIN, FRAN  1  2 10    2.80  CLEAR, COULDN'T LAST
A CL-4+F        10,000 RITVO, MICHAEL  2  5  8    3.60  LACKED A RALLY
                                  WORK OUTS
 4D(FT)PRX: 51.9B  4D(SY)PRX: 50.0B  4D(FT)PRX: 51.2B  4D(FT)PRX: 49.2B
 4D(FT)MTH: 49.8B  5D(FT)MTH:103.6B  4D(FT)MTH: 48.4B  5D(FT)MTH:106.4B
                                  FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS  10  94  219  278  437  463  488  497  535  544  550  573
RACES      35  63  91  126  147  160  181  197  216  259  307  329
                                INSTRUCTIONS
 F1=Adjusted Pace Lines/Details              F2=Adjusted & Original Pace Lines
 F6=Paceline Indicator                        F9=Comments
    P=Print            ↑=Back 1 Horse  ↓=Next Horse            Esc=Calculate
                        Press # to Select/UnSelect Line
Race 4
Pace lines
Horse 1 Scr
Horse 2 Line 2-3
Horse 3 Line 4
Horse 4 Line 3
Horse 5 Line 2
Horse 6 Line 3 form
Horse 7 Line 1
Horse 8 Line 4 (T)
Horse 9 No Line
Horse 10 Line 3

After hides
Primary / Total energy
Code:
PRX1114 4 8.3 D CL 3+F $23,000 CP=$7,500 1:46PM

                    TOTAL ENERGY and PRIMARY FACTORS (VAL4)

                              │          PRIMARY FACTORS          │  │SUPP│
┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┐  ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬─┤  ├──┬─┤
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│ Total R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│ HE│ FW│ FX│  │LS│R│  │LS│R│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│1│ 2 PROUD3  │ 73│161.67-1│  │  4│  2│  4│  2│  1│  2│  3│  │18│2│  │12│2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│2│ 3 BURN 4p │ 76│160.14-4│  │  1│  5│  2│  4│  4│  5│  4│  │25│5│  │21│4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│3│ 5 E LIZ2  │ 74│161.37-2│  │  3│  3│  3│  2│  3│  3│  2│  │19│3│  │13│3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│4│ 6 RICH 3  │ 68│159.18-5│  │  5│  1│  5│  3│  1│  4│  5│  │24│4│  │22│5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤  ├──┼─┤  ├──┼─┤
│5│ 8 ECHAL4  │ 77│161.34-3│  │  2│  4│  1│  1│  2│  1│  1│  │12│1│  │ 7│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴─┘  └──┴─┘

IMG - beard
              PRX1114 4 8.3 D CL 3+F $23,000 CP=$7,500 1:46PM

                      INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│        1F        │        2F          │    3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  2 PROUD3│      4->          │                  1->│              2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  3 BURN 4│                1->│    4->            │ 5->                  │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  5 E LIZ2│          3->      │            2->    │          3->        │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  6 RICH 3│  5->              │ 5->                │      4->            │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  8 ECHAL4│              2->  │        3->        │                  1->│
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘
2 and 3 re both hides - nowin bets
I will take a 5 horse exbox 2 3 5 8 10

COMPLETED: c01a3-786df
PRX
#4
$1 Exacta BX, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10 none $20.00
$7.50
- $12.50

The Pook 11-14-2015 02:48 PM
1 Attachment(s)
Tim,

It's just not fair man. You are the lone winner with a beautiful deduction and analysis and instead of the ML price of $10 you get $3.40. %@*//&6@!!!! There is no way that horse is worth betting at that price.

Most of us had the #3 who had some kind of compromised start where she burned up all her energy trying to catch the 10. She did have the proper permit.......Burn Permit :p:p:p......Oh God, I have to get out more. Anyways as Bill V pointed out that #10 did not help. Your #2 was dominant so the #3 with a perfect race may still not have pulled it off.

Sorry about the crap price but congrats anyway.

Pook


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