Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

My look

Tam 7 CL 5 N1-6M Purse 10.400 4 +

I will use the Jan 21 Tampa race 4 tandem 7-12 as the fulcrum with a 89 EPR POR from horse 7

Horse 1 Brides Holiday 5/1 EP
Right away, this one is a issue. This horse has been earning checks or is running competivly in Open 16 Claimers of the turf
Today starts a new form cycle Its been moving up the claiming ladder since winning for 10,000 on Sept 30 at GPM
were he won for 10,000 open So why today is he back on the dirt and running for only $5000
His Med Energy and E/L both seem to late for dirt horses going 7.0 at Tampa
No line

Horse 2 Oxford Street 10/1 Sus.
Line 1 is a plus + race but at 8.5 furlongs The pace was much slower than i expect in this race
E/L sticks look late
No Line

Horse 3 My Charming Clyde 6/1 Sus
Line 1 is a plus paceline here at Tampa at this class.
I see no 7 furlong races - nothing at 6.5 either, so the distance is an issue.
E/L is just slightly toward the early side.
Line 1

Horse 4 Country Alarm 12/1 Sus Presser
I am thinking based on his EPR ratings he will be further back in this 7 furlong
spring. He is a check earner routing so cutting back to a sprint shows no plus paceline in awhile
I'm hoping his EPRs leave him coming up short here.
No line

Horse 5 Blessed At Mass NF 20/1
Router with slow EPRs 20/1 = no line
Positve is he is coming back in 6 days

Horse 6 Ned Devine EP 12/1
He has been of 316 Days In his other layoff over 200 days between lines 6 and 5
he did nothing
No line

Horse 7 Bonetown Wild 3/1 Presser
Line 1 is a plus + paceline 26 days ago. Form is good, He is rested
afer 26 days. All his + pacelines at differnt distance all fit the Early /Late model of just slightly early.
Line 1

Horse 8 Red Rose Cat Early 30/1 ML
He should get a early lead If anybody runs near hime his fading patternwill justify his
30/1 ML
Line 1 is a (+) He is a non contender but I will use him for a pace picture.

Horse 9 Ausable 6/1 Presser 6/1
I will use the + paceline from line 3
I will excuse line 1 and 2 as he is dropping down from Open 8, also his first try at Tampa
and line 2 from GP at 6250 open
Line 3 is from 90 days ago His + races fit the 7.0 model

Horse 10 Willful Warrior 30/1 Sus
Shows nothing in last 2 lines at this class and distance
Not today
No Line

Horse 11 SCR.

Horse 12 Schettino 15/1 Early
Line 2 is a perfect picture of what I exppect today
He ran a 88 EPR and completely stopped trying to run with the 7
therefore in todays race he has no usable paceline recently
No Line

I will go with 3 and 9

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