M4$ Apr16 Challenge12 (Pook)
 

Challenge 12

Laurel 10

7 Scratched

Yes there are some unknowns in this race. One FTS and two horses with one line each. They could jump up and bite. Maybe.
I chose this race because of the definitive E horse the 8 and the automatic tossers the 2,9,10,11. I think the 8 will lead but his fractions will have to be in the high 23's and 47's to win. He has been beaten twice by the 4 already with no real early pressure in those events except from the 4 who he opposes again. Also he seems to have an on/off pattern going of which this is an off. There are horses that could beat him with those fractions. So I am going to toss him.
Of the rest I only see the 6,5,4,1 in that order from OTE.

I will wager-cap from here.
Pook

LRL Race 11
 

I think that the #8 JacobyJ will probably be in the lead comfortably. However, he has a habit of not finishing his races so I don't think he will wire the field. Of the horses that will be hehind him I am leaning towards the #5 Buzzword and the #6 El Maxi. I think the #6 would be in the lead if #8 was not in the race and will probably be first to jump to the lead when the #8 fades. #5 intrigues me as he is training consistently for his first start in almost a year and in his first start for a new trainer after being claimed in that last race a year ago.

So I will go with #5 Buzzword and #6 El Maxi.

Hey Gandalf,

Yes I agree on the 5. But I know what will happen if I bet him and lose. FTL will Email me and expound his never bet on over 20-1 and over 120 day off rules. Which I understand and appreciate. They only hit 5% of the time.... but equally over all types of races? I know, I know......

Pook

This race has several horses that could fight for the lead, but none have finished very well. The 8 should be in front. The pace should be around 23.2 47.6. I am looking for an OTE runner. The #1 looks the best from his 3rd line back. The last 2 races looked like experiments that did not work.

The 11 horse didn't run a lick his first out, but he has been gelded since & has a steady work pattern. In a matchup, he is a throwout, but I am going to throw him in for the odds in case he wakes up. I need some luck.

I am going with the #1 and the #11 to win.