Question - why do post time favorites lose?
 

We all know that post time favorites win between 30 and 35% of all races (or you pick the %-age.) So I was wondering if one was to try to quantify what factors were most prominent for those favorites that lost, what would they be.

If you are inclined to add to some input to this discussion, please comment on why you think the factor being discussed points to a non-winning performance. If you have data to support your idea, please include it.

I am looking to do some research, but I am trying to avoid doing it multiple times. So many times I've researched stuff and then, when I thought I was done, I wondered what would happen if I added _____. It almost takes as much time to add something to a project as it does to record the info the first time, so my asking is a start at trying to limit the laborious task at hand.

Looking forward to your input and thanks in advance.

Bill, I'll kick off from my guidelines re favourites as good candidates to lose.

1. Layoff > 270 days (the RDSS default setting for demotion to Secondary)
2. First time Turf
3. First time Main Track, though not a deal-breaker; i.e. all previous races run on Turf and today is Main Track.
4. CSR > 5 with NO excuse for last 2 lines poor ASR (Adjusted SR)
5. Top ranked on Win Odds but no confirmation from Tx1 or Tx2 (PW%) ratings
6. Early horse needing open lengths at Call1 who will be challenged by multiple bona fide Fighters, especially if its Call1 (and Call2) times are not superior to those other E's (though anecdotally, these E's seem rarely to be designated clear bet-time favourites: the challenge is obvious to the public)

I'll post more as they come up in practice.

Any time we can statistically eliminate a favourite or near-favourite at bet-time, with the good other ratings we are developing, profit in SOME pool can be a 'mortal lock'.

Thanks Bill.

Ted

Applicable to the cheap claimers I play, 5-10K range.
Repeat a win, especially 6 +,unless PP says otherwise. Doesn't mean they can't be INM
If I think of others when I handicap, I will include them.
Pat

Pat and Ted:

Thanks for the inputs. I will put them on my list

With paired lifetime top Adj SRs for an older, cheaper horse, expect a regression. Those ASRs look really good on paper but an older claimer generally can't hold form for long. The ones who can are a special case, like Ol Arky Gal alluded.

mick