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-   -   M4$16/2 Aug 6-Pook (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10532)

The Pook 08-05-2016 11:15 AM

M4$16/2 Aug 6-Pook
 
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Okay here we go again. I will post a race later today.
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The Pook 08-05-2016 04:51 PM

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WO7/4:13PMEST

And we are off!
Lots of threatening rain on the east coast. Gave up on a few interesting turf races because of possible T-Storms. Will stay safe with a poly race at my home track that I haven't played much this year. It has a Conquest horse in it.

I remember a couple of years ago Hoof advised me to never bet against a Conquest horse at WO-(something like that, but it couldn't have been that general). And I don't know if it still applies but he is the favourite with a top jock and trainer.

Good luck to all nine of our current players.
Pook

The Pook 08-05-2016 04:53 PM

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4-8

gandalf380 08-06-2016 02:22 PM

There looks to be plenty of speed here which usually does not hold that well on the Tapeta.

My picks:
win #3 Lilly's Goldie
win place #4 Crack That Whip

cigar 08-06-2016 02:48 PM

Wo r7
 
Good Matching skills all...........looking forward to learning from the advance matchers.


Pace: 22.5-46.3
OTE

1-part of pace duel - out
2-contender - Tandem
3-ran in restricted company - out
4-dist may be too short - do like her power move two back
5-contender - Tandem
6-contender - Tandem
7-contender - likely fav - will try to beat
8-will be up on the pace - Tandem - out

$2 Win/Place: 5-6 - Winner coming from tandem

Pat C. 08-06-2016 02:55 PM

I am calling this race OTE. Lots of speed from the 1 & 7 & maybe the 6 pressuring also. The 1 is the fastest but needs multiple clear lenghts to win. The 3 will be close up and will be a real threat. The 4 will be coming late, at the best odds. Looks like she was probable hurt two back, but has had steady works coming in to this race.
For this contest I will go with a win and place on the #4 to try for some ROI.

Good luck to all, Pat

Ted Craven 08-06-2016 03:28 PM

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$2 Win #3 and #5

Pace to be set by Early #7 at 23.1 . 46. Other Early #1 (and maybe #6) cannot keep up after F1. Reviewing the PoR screen F1 Velocity ranks, #7 has 2 lines which rank better at F1 than #1. An Early horse should show up as the F1 leader - and #1 cannot keep up.

However, the other Earlies will tire the #7 who will not last (plus his expected favourite odds and lower Rx rank count as a negative). (Plus if Gandalf the 'Wizard of Saratoga' says speed is challenged on Woodbine Main Track Tapeta, I listen.)

Thus the race runs Other Than Early (OTE). Per the Original screen, the 2 good closers are the #3 and #5. The #5 has closed to win against a faster 4f and 6f time than the projected pace. Per the Rx screen, the #3 has run with great Final Time consistency (CSR=1) and against higher calibre competition while well favoured in the odds (CR+ = 1), plus #1 LPR.

FWIW, the #4, though prepping well - for her closer running style, has not shown ability to close all the way in only 6.5f. Plus never run and won after a 70 day LO, let alone a 267 day LO. To be in contention, needs to duplicate her best ever SR by far = 83, last race last year. Maybe for in the money, but not for win. IMO.

Thus: win bets on #3 and #5, with maybe some nice odds on the #5. That's all I got for now. Bet-time odds may change things ...

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Capcondo 08-06-2016 04:04 PM

I see the speed here as the 7 and the 1. The 7 has broken on top in the last 2 races. She has solid internal fractions and is even money.

I'll pass.

lostandwon 08-06-2016 04:08 PM

ID’d 1 & 7 as E
7 has only won with a clear lead. Although not a 2 turn race I don’t think outside post does her any favors. But she does break well.
1 has won on the lead and off. Toss last race. Wish she broke better.
6 ran E 2nd back but maybe by accident/default?

Hoping 1 will set pace 23 – 46.7 and win

Others varying shades of OTE
2 – moves late
3 - will be close up. Appears to be able to make a move 2c-Str.
4 – Router. 7F 2 back went well tho
5- moves late
6 – interesting? Has ran against fast fractions
8 – U?

Bets:
Win 1
Win 3

Ted Craven 08-06-2016 04:12 PM

Update on my bet at 3 MTP.

$2 Win #3
$2 Win+Place #5


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