M4$16/2 Nov 12-Pook
 

Pook

Mahoning Valley Race 7 3:02EST (2)

Mahoning Valley Race 7 3:02EST (3)

MVR7

I won't be around for scratches and odds so I will post now.

MVR has been killing me since it opened a few weeks ago. Yet TDN has been incredibly successful this year. Its the same horse colony basically. If you can put up with the chalk, chalk, chalk, bomb, chalk, chalk, chalk cycle that permeates these small tracks there are profits to be made. My MVR sample size is much smaller than TDN so I figure something should kick in sooner or later. So I will either continue to torture myself here ....or maybe?

Here goes. Derived a 22+/45+ pace from three matching earlies (3,5,11). The 11 has the FPLR but is coming from outside so I think it makes it contentious on the front end. If he wasn't so far out he could win as a dominant early. This is the main point of decision in this race for me. So OTE. My models on this track show that it is kind of a crap shoot at this distance as to what is predictive as far as corollaries go. If any of these early horses are scratched it will probably screw this all up.

Came up with 1,7,8,9,10 as the ones that can handle that pace from off. Of these the 8,9 should be best positioned to inherit the lead. Hopefully they are decent odds and that the race is not scratched up.

8,9 WIN
Good Luck
Pook

MVR7:

MVR; Pook I like it.

I see lots of speed with the 3,5, and 11 like Pook. Also, the 8 and 10 will be close. I'm in the OTE camp. The horse I land on is the 9. His only race on the dirt he won against a slow pace. But, if I go 7 lines back, he showed a move against a 22.1 at WO.

The 9 is my choice to win.

mvr
 

lot of pace in this race 5 and 11 will cancel each other, if the 11 stumble and the 5 break loose race may be over.

Pace: 22.6 46.4
OTE

Contenders 5-7-8-9-10

I like the ex Woodbine horses, if the 8 run his race two back game over for this field. I expect 7, 8 and 10 close to the pace.

Win 7-8 - jumping off the 9 too low odds.

Good luck all

ID’d 2,3,5,11 as mostly E
The 11 is the dominant of them and is FPLR if 22.3 – 45.8 but can’t like the way outside post.

Looking for OTE
Projecting a slower hi 22 first fraction

The 8 has won against a 21.8 but looks a little inconsistent.

The 6 looks interesting in that if you go deep has moved hard against 22.6-8
He had a rough September. His last out he had a wide trip and got the lead. The horse that won isn’t here today so I think he can reverse the tandem the 7 won. It was a slower pace but off track.

Given his current 25/1 odds @ 2 MTP I’ll take a shot

Bet
Place 6

Bad Break
 

Watched and bet the race, the 7 just missed, wished he had a break better. That racing folks. On to next week:mad:

Well a bomb was served from MVR but nobody including the server was able to catch it. You'd have to have seen the slowest Early horse going into the race surviving the pace pressure and hanging on. Hence $72.

Pook