Sprint to Route Spot Play
 

I thought this race was a nice example of the lone, fast sprinter in a route race described in the Match-Up books. In the spot plays section of the book, the Hat says the following:

"A fast sprinter running in a route for the first time is an excellent spot play. At the six furlong, the sprinter should be at least three to five lengths faster than allrouters. The running style can be early or late, but he must be faster than all routers and other sprinters in the race. This play works best if the sprinter is the only one in the race." (p139)

The Hat also wrote in the first book about not wanting sprinters who fade in their sprints. In this race, there is a lone sprinter whose 6f time last race is much faster than the router's 6f times. He is the only sprinter in the race, and his last line shows positional move of 5-4-3-1 along with lengths gained between each call.

The winner was #5 paying $16.80...

P.S. If I screwed up the attachment, my apologies, maybe someone with more tech savvy can assist..the race was GG 5/24 race 1...

I think many would agree that sprint to route and route to sprint are two of the toughest kinds of races to MatchUp. The Hat was a master at these kinds of races.

Looking at your posted race, I don't think there is any way I could have got this. I fail terribly at these kinds of races. Would love to find a way to get better at them.

That being said, won't most decent sprinters just about always have a faster 6 furlong time than the routers in the race? I mean it just kind of stands to reason.

Good hit if you bet this one.

Thanks, Turbulator, I did. I agree that s/r r/s is a tricky area. For me, route to sprint especially. I will give you a few of my thoughts from my experience, but I hope the others who are more qualified to respond will chime in. I would love to learn more about this area too.

Anyway, I don't find this spot pay as often as I would like A few of the reasons (I think) are:

1) I will find multiple sprinters stretching out who are closely matched at the 6f and in my mind, cancel each other's advantage. I end up passing a race like this.

2) The qualifier that the horse is stretching out for the first time. If I see a horse who is stretching out today,but has previous routes, I typically match him off the route lines.

3) The qualifier that the horse does not fade in his sprint (from the match-up book). I typically discount fast sprinters stretching out if the positinal pattern in the sprint is something like 1-1-1-2 or 2-2-2-4, even if the 6f time is 3-5 ticks faster than the routers. The presence of a horse like this often steers me to an OTE call for today's route though.

These 3 limit the number of spot plays that I find. At this point, I'm focusing on the few patterns that I see, while practicing other races and learning along with everyone else here from the masters.

I've taken note of your qualifications. Especially, first time route, and "doesn't fade in the sprint."

Good things to know. Thanks for posting.

Looking at race
 

Hi pete isn't the #2\#6 6 furlong times with in 1 or 2 fifth's of the five which would be a no play just trying to understand.?

Looking at race
 

Aren't #2 #6 to close to the five 6f time for him to qualify.?Just trying to understand pete

I don't think so. The 5 is actually faster even though it is only a tick or two, and he doesn't fade. And IF you factor in beaten lengths (a no-no perhaps, but it helps to make the case) then the five is actually much faster to the 6 furlong call.

Hi Albatross-

I took the last line for the #5 which was 111.4.

When I looked at #2, I saw the last line 6f of the route in 112.1 but beaten 8 lengths. I also looked at line 3, which was 6f in 112.2 but beaten 6.75 lengths. Ater factoring in the beaten lengths I did not feel she was competitive with #5.

When I looked at #6, I first saw the last two routes, especially line 2 which was from BM, where #6 ran the 111.4. The 6f route fraction was 114, beaten 1 length. Technically, if you look at line 3 which was 109.3 beaten 11.75 equals something like 111.4 or 112. I guess I did disregard that after seeing the last 2 lines and how she didn't come close to repeating it.

Pete

Hi Albatross. You have to see that the #5 won his race under 112 while the other horses are 5 or more lengths off a 112. At the 6 furlong time.

emilio

Thanks guys
 

That explain it thanks for all explanation